Distance on Saturday night no friend of Tommy’s as Grand Final shot slips away

Trainer Mark Dux knows it’s very unlikely Tommy Lincoln will qualify for the Grand Final but he’s hoping for a little more luck when the third round of Interdominion heats are run at Albion Park on Saturday night.

Tommy Lincoln, who was right near the top of the leaderboard after the first round, earned only three points on Tuesday night and now sits four spots below the 12-horse cut-off.

And with Saturday night’s heat over 2680 metres, a distance he has never won over, his chances of earning enough points to sneak into Saturday week’s A$500,000 final look slim.

Dux, however, wasn’t that unhappy with Tommy’s latest performance, an assessment borne out by his sectional times.

Third into the first turn, Tommy looked set to enjoy a good trip for Mathew Neilson until not one, but two, rivals came round.

Dux would gladly have taken three back on the outer but, soon after, another three runners swooped round, pushing Tommy back to second last at the bell.

From there, with series favourite Leap To Fame dictating outside the leader, and rattling off closing sectionals of 28.1 and 26.3, Tommy’s chances evaporated.

Not that he didn’t put in. The official times had Tommy running his third quarter in 27.95, faster than Leap To Fame, and only two hundredths of a second slower than the fastest split for the quarter.

But his 27.42 last 400 saw him beat only two home as Leap To Fame was credited with a brilliant mile rate of 1:52.2 for the 2138 metres.

“I thought his run was OK,” Dux said. “He’s drawn similarly (in four) on Saturday night and it would be nice if he didn’t get shuffled back this time.

“We’ll come out and play it by ear. I know it’s not his best distance but we’ll just see how he runs the trip out.”

Dux says while Tommy is not a top Group I performer, he’s competitive with the right run. But give him a bad run and, like most of the others, he can’t feature.

“He’s not a horse you can grab and stop and start either.”

Saturday night’s ninth heat features leading contenders Swayzee (pole) and Better Eclipse (10) but apart from Classie Washington, who has drawn badly on the outside, none of the others feature in the top 12 qualifiers.

But Tommy Lincoln’s record over the longer trip doesn’t invite confidence.

He finished fourth of six from a 20 metre handicap over 2647 metres at Albion Park in June, 2022, and 10th in the Redcliffe Cup (2613m).

His three attempts over 2700 metres in New Zealand realised an eighth and two ninths, albeit one against tough opposition in the Northern Derby.

Argyle finishes on for a close-up fourth.Consistent

Later in the night, Dux lines up Lincoln Farms’ consistent four-year-old Argyle, drawn four in the ninth race.

“He’ll need luck to win but he’s a realistic place chance.”

Argyle finished a close-up and late closing fourth last week, but Dux believes he could have won had driver Angus Garrard held the parked position.

“Angus drove him really well, coming out of the one-one to sit parked, but in hindsight taking a trail on Hands On might have cost him.

“They backed right off after that and only ran a 29.3 quarter when he needed to be going 28.”

From the death seat, Hands On ended up being pipped only half a head.

“I think Argyle is stronger than a sit-up and dash-them type.”

Dux struggles to see Argyle beating pole runner Aardies Flash whom he says is “a nicer than average three-year-old.

“He can run a bit of time and if he puts the handlebars down I’d prefer not to be parked.

“Who knows, we could end up in the one-one. But I wouldn’t even mind three-fence, he’d get a lovely run from there and save a lot of ground.”

Tommy Lincoln races at 10.14pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Argyle races at 1.27am NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.