Don’t be fooled by the poor form line, Tommy’s racing as well as ever and will go close

His form line may look terrible but Tommy Lincoln is a genuine winning chance at Albion Park on Saturday night.

Despite finishing at the tail of the field in last week’s Group I Redcliffe Gold Cup, driver Angus Garrard reported the horse was racing as well as ever.

And trainer Mark Dux says now that Tommy has finally landed a good draw - he leaves from the pole - and drops way down in grade, we’ll see the real Tommy.

“In that field he’ll be in the top three in the betting for sure and, on the times he’s been running and the horses he’s been racing, he’ll be hard to beat.

“At least we know he’ll get a good trip this time and be in the thick of things. There are a couple of nice ones drawn wide out (like the former Purdon horse Major Jellis, now with the McCarthys) but they have to cross us.

“Tommy will come out and lead then it will be up to Angus but I think he’ll hold up.”

Dux warns not to be put off by the numbers alongside Tommy’s name.

“We’ve been waiting a long time for a good draw and I thought he went very well at Redcliffe.

“He was caught wide and had to go back. Angus took short the cuts but that didn’t pan out and he ended up going widest on the corner, which is not good at Redcliffe.

“For a fleeting moment when he came off their backs it looked like he’d sprint but then he just paddled.”

The last two times Tommy left from the inside at Albion Park he ran terrific races, finishing second to the speedy Turn It Up over 2138 metres and fourth over 1660 metres behind Blacksadance, Northview Hustler and Bitcoin in a sizzling 1:50 track record mile.

Nothing of that calibre opposes him on Saturday night, with all the top horses contesting the feature Wondai’s Mate later in the card.

Mark Dux … nursing a sore tailbone.Four drivers dislodged

Dux has handed over the seat behind Lincoln Farms’ stablemate Captain Nemo in the fifth race to Garrard, still nursing a sore tailbone after being dislodged in a nasty incident at Albion Park on Tuesday.

Dux was one of four drivers tipped out in the two-year-old race when recent Kiwi import Uproar “did a left hand turn” in the early stages of the score-up and severely checked the five runners inside him.

Uproar, a He’s Watching colt who had been trialling well for Brett Gray in Southland, fell heavily, badly fractured a cannon bone, and was put down. The race was abandoned with two runaway horses sustaining lacerations.

Dux decided to give Saturday night’s drive a miss after coming close to crashing again in the second race at Redcliffe on Wednesday, narrowly missing the dislodged Pete McMullen whose charge was severely checked when locking wheels in the last lap.

Dux says the jury is still out on how Captain Nemo performed fresh-up at Redcliffe last week but one thing’s for sure, he’ll go a lot better on the bigger Albion Park circuit on Saturday night.

“Redcliffe is not his track, he really doesn’t like it. He was only racing there because we were forced to - he just doesn’t handle it properly.”

Captain Nemo, who beat one home, was having his first race for seven weeks at Redcliffe and had missed a trial so Dux wasn’t expecting too much of him.

Dux said Captain Nemo seemed to be travelling well three back on the markers when trailer Regulus weakened before the home turn, holding him up.

“I had only 100 odd metres to duck back to the inside and chase him up, so it was hard to make ground when all the others had been winding up wide out before the turn.

“That’s why when I was pulling up I wasn’t sure whether that was the reason or whether he just got a bit tired. He’s also a lazy horse.

“The run would do him the world of good and he’s done well this week and worked well.”

Captain Nemo has drawn one the second row but Dux is hoping he gets a good run through on the back of pole runner Ronaldo.

Tommy Lincoln races at 7.05pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Captain Nemo races at 9.12pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.