Draw against Tommy but he’s still a top four chance at Albion Park on Saturday night
By Barry Lichter • 2 February 2023
Despite a tricky barrier draw, Tommy Lincoln should still finish in the top four at Albion Park on Saturday night, says trainer Mark Dux.
A last-start winner from a leading draw of three, Tommy moves out this week to five, after an early scratching, which could be enough to see him deprived of his favourite role.
“They’re not the best ones inside us but they have enough speed to be a pest,” says Dux.
“He’s got to go forward, though, as it’s too hard getting into the race if you go back. Mathew (Neilson) will roll across and play it by ear.
“Who knows, he might have enough speed to get across. He’ll probably get a little more respect now too because of the way he’s racing.
“But if they think we’ll cross and hand to Blacksadance they might not let us go.”
Dux says it’s a given that Blacksadance, drawn the outside of the second row as the equal highest rated on 120, will make a run round the field at some stage.
“If we’re outside the leader then it wouldn’t be a good spot, with him in front and running his last mile in 1:53.”
Dux says Tommy has trained on well since his last race a couple of weeks ago when he rated 1:52.8 for the 1660 metres.
The horse extends to 2138 metres on Saturday night, a distance he has scored over in only two of his seven wins in Queensland.
“But I’m really happy with him and, even if he gets only an average run, he’s a top four chance.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 10.44pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Les Harding
Monday at Globe Derby
Race 6: Beaudiene Rocknroll
6.34pm NZ time
This race will tell us how he measures up against the local horses. We decided to go for this lower graded race, despite having lower prize money, instead of going to the trials one more time. He won the second of two trials on April 21, beating race rival Hezrockinroyalty by four metres. Run over 2230 metres he clocked 57.7 for his last half and 1:59.7 for his last mile. From the pole he’ll start short and be hard to beat.
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 7: Lincoln Lou
8.25pm
“He’s a beautiful little horse who doesn’t do anything wrong. He got held up at a crucial time last week and got home well (for sixth). He gets out pretty well so should get a good trip from two. He’ll go his usual honest race. He’s improving all the time, he’s a gutsy little guy, but whether he can measure up to the favourites remains to be seen.”
Race 7: Sugar Ray Lincoln
8.25pm
“He’s a work in progress and we’re still dabbling with his gear. He’s actually a naturally good-gaited horse, like all the American Ideals, but he’s going through a stage of not really knowing why he’s out there. You just don’t know when he’ll click but three is an ideal draw for him and he should be handy if he does things right.”
Race 9: Leo Lincoln
9.20pm
“He’s an under-rated horse, as good as those others who are higher rated. He’s proving to be a tidy horse and, while he’s not viewed as a serious player by some, I think he is. He was closing off really well last week behind Hugotastic.”
