Draws make it tough for Brisbane trio but Nemo’s back to the right grade this time

Lincoln Farms’ trio of Captain Nemo, Argyle and Tommy Lincoln look set to struggle from bad barrier draws at Albion Park on Saturday night.

But trainer Mark Dux warns that all three horses are racing better than their form line suggests and they need only luck to be in the fight.

First cab off the rank in the fourth race is Captain Nemo who beat only one home last week but could be the best chance to get some money this week.

Racing against far better performed rivals from a bad alley last week, Captain Nemo was never able to get into the race.

“The leader ran home in 55, and what chance have you got of making any ground when you’re back in the field? It’s near impossible.”

Captain Nemo was officially clocked over his last 800 metres in 55.66, which was only half a second slower than the winner L L Cool J (55.18).

“But he’s back to more his own grade this time and, in an even field, he should get a good trip through behind the favourite.”

The Shane Graham-trained and driven Scarlet Babe ran a good third last start and, even though the mare has not won a race since December, 2021, she is still the one to beat, he says.

Even if Scarlet Babe doesn’t manage to cross the pole runner Misdemeanor, which has gate speed and likes to lead, Dux believes Nemo should still end up no worse than one-out two-back.

Impossible to predict

Just where Argyle lands from three the second row in the sixth race is impossible to predict but one thing Dux does know is that the field he faces is very strong.

“This is a really tough race - there aren’t many there that are no-hopers. They’re all reasonable chances.

“Argyle will still race all right - he’ll probably drop straight behind the nine horse (Hezashadowplaya) and drive for luck.”

Dux rated Argyle’s effort for third in a heat of last week’s female drivers’ championship as “honest.”

After enjoying a sweet one-one trail, Narissa McMullen told Dux she thought he was going to win when she pulled out.

“But he dashed quickly only for 100 metres then levelled out.”

Argyle finished four metres behind the winner, who clocked a 1:54.1 mile rate, leaving Dux “happy enough” with the effort.

“He didn’t have the gate speed I hoped he might but maybe he’s a stronger horse more than one with high speed. He might be able to do work so we’ll test him at some stage.”

Wide draw death knell

Dux already knows not to ask Tommy Lincoln to do too much work early in his races so drawing five of six in the last race is a death knell.

“We have to drive Tommy sensibly, if we go out stupidly he’ll drop out. We’ve got to hope Deus Ex charges off the gate but it’s his first run back so they’ll probably drive him quietly.”

That, says Dux, will almost certainly see pole runner Mach Da Vinci gifted an easy lead and win.

“Everything else will go straight to the fence - the two (Governor Jujon) will duck behind it and (Northview) Hustler won’t come out.”

Shane Graham would then be happy to go steady on Mach Da Vinci and blast home in sectionals that won’t allow anything to catch him.

Dux says it’s a shame because Tommy is “flying” at the moment.

“His run last week was really good even though he was only sixth. Mathew (Neilson) said he felt terrific and really wanted to hit the line.

“He made ground on the outside ones and was beaten only 12 metres which is not bad considering how far back he was at the quarter and they ran home in 25.7.”

Captain Nemo races at 9.11pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Argyle races at 10.09pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Tommy Lincoln races at 12.05am NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.