If Tommy can relax again he only needs his rivals to go silly early to pounce on them late

Trainer Mark Dux is hoping for more of the same when Tommy Lincoln lines up at Albion Park on Saturday night after a new bit saw him settle beautifully last week.

Instead of over-racing and tiring late as he has been prone to doing, Tommy Lincoln relaxed and roared home late to all but catch the winner Love Your Work, courtesy of a quiet drive and a “happy bit”.

This week he has only five rivals but he will have to be on his best behaviour again, stepping up to 2138 metres, with Cruz Bromac, Turn It Up and Will The Wizard all capable of winning.

“We’ll drive him cold again, camp in behind them and do nothing, and hopefully he’ll hit the line again.

“I was really happy with him last week - he came home in 54.15 and 26.76 (faster than the winner) - and he only needed a few more hops to run it down.”

Dux praised the work of new driver Mathew Neilson.

“Mathew has good hands when they get a bit keen. I told him not to fight the horse, just put him on a helmet, and he went as good as you could want. They went only 58.3 for the first half and he still settled well.

“If he continues down that path, with a bit of luck, he can win more races. He’s been over-racing and you can’t do that, be fighting your horse, and think you’ll have any punch at the finish.

“I don’t think he can make his own luck with the times they’re running. Coming through the grades was a different ball game but look at the ridiculous fractions they’re running now.”

Dux says Tommy’s chances on Saturday night will hinge on how his rivals are driven.

“We have to hope they go a bit silly early. The slower they go, the harder it will be for us because if they jog along you know the sectionals they’ll run home in.”

The key to the race, he says, will be how desperate Will The Wizard’s driver Pete McMullen is to hold his pole spot out of the gate.

“I don’t know if he has enough speed to hold Cruz Bromac and Turn It Up but I’m sure he’ll be trying.

“I don’t think there’s anything in Australia that could cross Turn It Up if he was drawn the inside so it will be interesting to see if they light him up from the outside.”

McMullen will be conscious of the fact that if he hands up first to Cruz Bromac, he might end up three deep and lose his winning chance, if Turn It Up then takes over.

“If Will is ever going to hold, though, it will be at the 2138 start - it’s such a good run up the straight. The inside horses don’t lose ground.

“If there’s any chink in their armour, or if they go too hard, Tommy will be strong at the finish. He’s going well.

“Tommy’s in the top four but it will come down to what the others do and how hard they work.”

Tommy Lincoln races at 12.40pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.