Lisa’s Manawatu Cup analysis: Invador will be hitting the line late and Rapper an upset hope

Trainer Lisa Latta will be happy just to see classy stayer Platinum Invador hitting the line hard in Saturday’s $100,000 Manawatu Cup (2300m).

Platinum Invador ($8.50) will be having his first race for more than six weeks after an Australian campaign and, from a very wide draw, will get a long way back in the running.

And while Latta has been pleased with the horse’s work since his return from Melbourne she believes he will need a lot of luck to win the Awapuni feature.

And that’s why she thinks stablemate Platinum Rapper ($19), beaten a lip last week, might even be able to upset the Group III field.

“Platinum Invador worked great on Tuesday but I’m expecting this run to tidy him up well for the City of Auckland Cup on New Year’s Day.”

Platinum Invador, the reigning New Year’s Day Ellerslie champion, hasn’t raced since finishing ninth in the Hotham Handicap at Flemington on October 31, the last of five Australian runs when he had little luck with the barrier draws and was the victim of slow tempo races.

His best effort was a third in the Herbert Power Handicap but, undoubtedly, the staying prowess which carried him to a City Of Auckland Cup win and a brave third in the Auckland Cup was never seen.

Platinum Invador has 56kg on Saturday, 3kg more than he carried into second behind Concert Hall in last year’s Manawatu Cup.

Latta was happy with his recent trial, at Foxton on December 8, when he ran second over 1400 metres, but says he still lacks race fitness.

“On fitness and draws you’d have to go for Rapper as the better chance. You need good draws on the big days.

“She’s nicely placed in five and has definitely improved for her run last week.”

Platinum Rapper was in front until the last stride of 2100 metres at Awapuni last Saturday when pipped by stablemate Sir Nate, the slow 7 conditions made to order for her.

“The one query I have is how will she handle a good track, being by Makfi?”

In four starts on dead ground the mare has yet to finish closer than fifth.

Awapuni was rated a dead 5 this morning but with a fine forecast it should come back to good by Saturday.

Lincoln Falls hasn’t raced for 20 months. PHOTO: Peter Rubery/Race Images.The long awaited return of the talented Lincoln Falls ($9) will be a highlight of the day for Lincoln Farms which watched his entire four-year-old season go by without racing.

Diagnosed with a small hole in a tendon in late August, 2019, he had a long spell before undergoing rehab with Bryce Newman.

Since being back in the stable, Lincoln Falls’ leg has been fine and he trialled strongly over 1000 metres at Foxton nine days ago when beaten two heads by the speedy Lady Rudolph and Pownce in heavy ground.

“He’s still carrying a bit of condition but I expect him to be finding the line on Saturday.”

Not having raced since the Cambridge Breeders’ Stakes in April, 2019, however, Latta says he can be expected to need a couple of runs to find race fitness.

Don’t be surprised to see a form turnaround by Platinum Spirit ($6) in the fourth race.

“It was a tricky track he ran on first-up, over 2200 metres. He has improved from that run, it’s a very even field with little current form, and I expect him to be very competitive.”

Platinum Spirit holds a nomination for next month’s Wellington Cup but needs to advance in the ratings to make the field.

Lincoln Star ($11) should bounce back to his consistent form in the sixth race too.

“I think he battled away last start because of the slow conditions and he is going to get a better track this time. He has worked nicely again this week and is a fit horse.”

On Tuesday, Lincoln Star teamed with Platinum Invador on the dead course proper, finishing on terms after a strong 1000 metres in 1:06.3, the last 600 in 35.2.