Mark: Awkward second draw makes it very tough for Argyle but he’s not a no-hoper
By Barry Lichter • 14 March 2024
A very awkward second row draw prevents trainer Mark Dux from pushing Argyle’s case at Albion Park this weekend - but he warns not to put the pen through him completely.
Dux strongly tipped the horse as a top three chance last Saturday night, and his followers were rewarded with a $7.10 place dividend when he rallied bravely for third. But he says it’s hard to be confident this week when he moves to the outside of the second row in the second race.
“He was very strong last week, but that’s him and, while they dropped him off with a quick 27 quarter down the back, I knew he’d keep coming.”
Though winning driver Brendan Barnes was sitting up on winner Big Shadow near the post, Argyle attacked the line hard to finish just two and a half lengths away, three-quarters of a length behind The Tax Cullector.
“I don’t think he’s a no-hoper this time, but I’m not super confident as I don’t see a lot of pressure in the race.
“The main two look to be The Tax Cullector and Pacifico Dream and I can’t see them doing much early. If they lead and trail and the eight horse, Stormtide, sits three fence it will be near on impossible to make ground on them if they back off even a little.”
Dux says he can’t see anything that will be keen on sitting outside the leader and in the scenario, if there’s no real tempo, gun junior Angus Garrard might slip around and park on Argyle.
“If they back off there’s a very good chance he could do that but I don’t say he will. Then it’s a matter of is he good enough to do the work and keep going?
“It definitely looks awkward but with a bit of luck in the run he’s more than capable of putting up a good showing.
“I’m going into the race happy with the horse and I’m sure he’ll race well but he could finish top three or he could have to do too much work and run sixth.”
Dux says not to be fooled by Argyle’s bouncing form line.
“A couple of numbers in his form line don’t look great but his runs have been very good, and he’s been running fast sectionals.
“The draw makes the race a lot harder to win but if it unfolds in our favour he can earn money.”
Argyle races at 8.39pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Tuesday at Addington
Race 9: Debbie Lincoln
4.03pm
“She’s drawn out but I think she’s got the gate speed to be put into the race. You’ve got to be handy to beat the good ones and we don’t want to be stuck behind some of the others. The one drawn two inside us, Arafura, looks the one to beat but Debbie is as good as anything in the race in my opinion. It’s not going to be easy but I’m hopeful. She’s done well down here and is in good shape.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Cambridge
Race 5: Im Not The Maid
6.17pm
“The draw helps and while she’s very honest she still needs to improve. Gary Hall said she was a bit stop-start last time but he cut corners and wasn’t too far away at the finish. He reckoned his toe rope broke at the top of the straight.”
Race 8: Lincoln Maree
7.49pm
“She showed no speed when resuming and it’s hard to see her playing a part in this.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
7.49pm
“She went the best of them last time, was hampered turning or home, and could improve.”
Race 8: Jessie Lincoln
7.49pm
“She’s a big filly but so far, so good. There are a few negatives, like the second row draw and it being her first time under lights, but I think she could go quite well. It’s not a wonderful lot against her and she’s training well.”
Race 8: Lincoln’s Spice
7.49pm
“She over-raced early first-up and burned herself out. She’s a delicate little thing but we’ll put some plugs in her this week. Last time in I thought she could be the best of them. Whether the others have caught her up or she’s gone backwards I don’t know.”
