Mark: Awkward second draw makes it very tough for Argyle but he’s not a no-hoper
By Barry Lichter • 14 March 2024
A very awkward second row draw prevents trainer Mark Dux from pushing Argyle’s case at Albion Park this weekend - but he warns not to put the pen through him completely.
Dux strongly tipped the horse as a top three chance last Saturday night, and his followers were rewarded with a $7.10 place dividend when he rallied bravely for third. But he says it’s hard to be confident this week when he moves to the outside of the second row in the second race.
“He was very strong last week, but that’s him and, while they dropped him off with a quick 27 quarter down the back, I knew he’d keep coming.”
Though winning driver Brendan Barnes was sitting up on winner Big Shadow near the post, Argyle attacked the line hard to finish just two and a half lengths away, three-quarters of a length behind The Tax Cullector.
“I don’t think he’s a no-hoper this time, but I’m not super confident as I don’t see a lot of pressure in the race.
“The main two look to be The Tax Cullector and Pacifico Dream and I can’t see them doing much early. If they lead and trail and the eight horse, Stormtide, sits three fence it will be near on impossible to make ground on them if they back off even a little.”
Dux says he can’t see anything that will be keen on sitting outside the leader and in the scenario, if there’s no real tempo, gun junior Angus Garrard might slip around and park on Argyle.
“If they back off there’s a very good chance he could do that but I don’t say he will. Then it’s a matter of is he good enough to do the work and keep going?
“It definitely looks awkward but with a bit of luck in the run he’s more than capable of putting up a good showing.
“I’m going into the race happy with the horse and I’m sure he’ll race well but he could finish top three or he could have to do too much work and run sixth.”
Dux says not to be fooled by Argyle’s bouncing form line.
“A couple of numbers in his form line don’t look great but his runs have been very good, and he’s been running fast sectionals.
“The draw makes the race a lot harder to win but if it unfolds in our favour he can earn money.”
Argyle races at 8.39pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Little Missy Lincoln can stand up for herself in Young Guns fillies’ heat on Friday night
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Nathan’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: The Night Fox
5.44pm
“From a good front line draw Harry can run off the gate and find the front. He’s shown he’s got the speed to get there. And if he can go 2:42 again, or quicker, I thought he’d be a very good winning chance. It’s an easier field than the one he beat last time. He’s trained well this week.”
Race 2: Rivergirl Bella
6.09pm
“She goes down to Cambridge for the first time so it’s a big drop in class. She also goes a lot better left-handed so I thought from the good draw she could run top three.”
Race 3: Lincoln Maree
6.34pm
“She paced a 1:56.7 mile in beating the amateurs last start but it looks like she’ll need a bit of luck from the draw this time. The two inside her like to lead so she could end up three fence or outside them. I’ll leave it up to Harry to get the right trip.”
Race 3: Lincoln Lover
6.34pm
“He’s a place chance. He likes bowling along but from five it’s hard to say where he’ll end up. He’s very consistent and he paced 2:42.3 last time so I can absolutely see him in the money.”
Race 6: Lincoln Linda
8.04pm
“She was in a very strong R40 to R48 race last time at Auckland against horses like Alecto, All Of Me and Cyclone Rebel, and she clocked 2:41.1, so back to Cambridge where she won her first race, and a much easier R38 to R40 field, she’s got to be a good winning chance. She’s best in front if Fergie can get there.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Leo Lincoln
4.42pm
“I’m not holding my breath with him. We won’t count that last run, when the leader went ballistic and he couldn’t get into the race, but he’s not well placed here.”
Race 4: Spiritual Bliss
6.09pm
“She’s racing really well and this looks a bit easier than last time when she was trapped in the breeze in a strong field. I can’t see how she won’t be right in the fight.”
Race 7: Missy Lincoln
7.34pm
“I didn’t know what to expect on debut but she was very brave. I’m picking she’ll go well again but she’ll need a bit of luck - drawn the second line we’re at the mercy of others. We’ll poke her out and see. At least she won’t get parked this time.”
Race 10: Lincoln Wave
9.07pm
“We’re racing the best horses now but he’ll definitely go better than last time. Tony (Herlihy) said he felt super across the top but once in the straight he flattened out, which I half expected. I had him scoped afterwards just to make sure he was all right but he was short of a run, that’s all.”
Race 10: Johnny Lincoln
9.07pm
“He went super when third last week and Fergie said just wait ’til he gets over 2700 metres, he’ll be a monster. He’s turned into a proper racehorse. From four there’ll be a bit of urgency early and hopefully he can get a suck along and get some of it.”
