Mark: Awkward second draw makes it very tough for Argyle but he’s not a no-hoper
By Barry Lichter • 14 March 2024
A very awkward second row draw prevents trainer Mark Dux from pushing Argyle’s case at Albion Park this weekend - but he warns not to put the pen through him completely.
Dux strongly tipped the horse as a top three chance last Saturday night, and his followers were rewarded with a $7.10 place dividend when he rallied bravely for third. But he says it’s hard to be confident this week when he moves to the outside of the second row in the second race.
“He was very strong last week, but that’s him and, while they dropped him off with a quick 27 quarter down the back, I knew he’d keep coming.”
Though winning driver Brendan Barnes was sitting up on winner Big Shadow near the post, Argyle attacked the line hard to finish just two and a half lengths away, three-quarters of a length behind The Tax Cullector.
“I don’t think he’s a no-hoper this time, but I’m not super confident as I don’t see a lot of pressure in the race.
“The main two look to be The Tax Cullector and Pacifico Dream and I can’t see them doing much early. If they lead and trail and the eight horse, Stormtide, sits three fence it will be near on impossible to make ground on them if they back off even a little.”
Dux says he can’t see anything that will be keen on sitting outside the leader and in the scenario, if there’s no real tempo, gun junior Angus Garrard might slip around and park on Argyle.
“If they back off there’s a very good chance he could do that but I don’t say he will. Then it’s a matter of is he good enough to do the work and keep going?
“It definitely looks awkward but with a bit of luck in the run he’s more than capable of putting up a good showing.
“I’m going into the race happy with the horse and I’m sure he’ll race well but he could finish top three or he could have to do too much work and run sixth.”
Dux says not to be fooled by Argyle’s bouncing form line.
“A couple of numbers in his form line don’t look great but his runs have been very good, and he’s been running fast sectionals.
“The draw makes the race a lot harder to win but if it unfolds in our favour he can earn money.”
Argyle races at 8.39pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Lincoln LInda
5.14pm
“The fillies she raced against in the Sires’ Stakes Semi were the best around so this is a massive drop in class for her. I imagine Fergie will work his way forward, as she’s best in front, and then she’d become the one to beat.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Prince Lincoln
5.16pm
“The draw helps as he likes being in front. The raw ability is there but from time to time he’s reluctant to show it. But that last start was a vast improvement.”
Race 1: Colonel Lincoln
5.16pm
“He was definitely in need of the run first-up and will benefit from another. He’s been off the scene for a long time.”
Race 5: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.08pm
“He did well second-up, peeling off a 55.1 half. He’s been a slow maturer but I think he’s getting stronger as he gets older - he certainly feels much stronger in his work.”
Race 5: Lincoln Wave
7.08pm
“The Cambridge race has brought him on and I’m sure he’ll go well again, but he won’t be butchered a week out from the Derby. I don’t want to get carried away but he’s a pretty good horse, the best of our three in the race. He’s a year younger than Suger Ray but has a bit more ability. It’s hard to know where he’ll take us but he has the potential to be a classic colt.”
Race 5: Leo Lincoln
7.08pm
“He’s in the zone, he’s feeling really great, and he won’t go badly. But he’ll need luck from the draw.”
Race 9: Spiritual Bliss
9.04pm
“She’s racing better horses now and has done well to cop getting parked in some hard-run races. Leading is her go and she’ll get her chance from the inside draw.”
Race 10: Rivergirl Bella
9.36pm
“She has got a bit of speed but she can’t carry it very far. But if she gets the right trip, and gets out at the right time, not too soon, she’s always a chance.”
Race 10: Jessie Lincoln
9.36pm
“Harry blamed himself for the horse breaking at the start at Cambridge - he said he asked her to go a bit too quickly off the gate. She shouldn’t do it again. She’ll hold her own here, I’m sure.”
Race 10: Marylynes Boy
9.36pm
“He’s been training well but he’s only a little colt having his first start and from the second row I think Nathan will be happy to just see him get around safely.”
