Captain Nemo is finishing on for fifth after a torrid trip last week.
Mark: Captain Nemo drops in grade and needs only average luck to be right there on Tuesday
By Barry Lichter • 20 November 2023
A significant drop in grade gives Captain Nemo gets his best chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Tuesday.
Trainer Mark Dux says the horse needs only average luck from the outside of the gate to be right there at the finish.
“He’s going well even though the (form) numbers don’t reflect it. I couldn’t tell you the last time anything went his way. We’re overdue for a bit of luck.”
Last week, Captain Nemo was left parked out when eventual winner Hy Voltage went to the lead in an up-to-rating 90 1660 and he did well to finish only 8 metres away in fifth place.
Driver Grant Dixon told Dux the horse had to do all the donkey work and would have earned a good cheque with any sort of luck.
Given Nemo’s two previous runs were from the second row in even stronger band 5 races, he will enjoy the step back to the up-to-rating 70 grade.
As the highest rated horse in the field on R70, he gets the worst alley, with main danger Midnight Calm (R67) immediately inside him.
“Midnight Calm will more than likely be the leader. We just have to hope that a couple inside him like Luvbite and Offyarocka Crocker come out under him early and make him run a bit. If he finds the lead easily and gets his own way he’ll run 1:52 and we won’t beat him.
“We’ll let them go crazy, go across behind them and come with one run. It would be stupid to go forward. We’d get parked for sure and you don’t want to be there when they running 1:52.”
Midnight Calm, a 15-race winner, has shown repeatedly he is capable of running that fast. Three starts back he ran a 2.8 metre second to Aroda, who clocked 1:52. Five starts back he was beaten half a head in 1:52.9, from the same gate six he has on Tuesday. And in August he won in 1:52.4.
After four second row draws, he returns to the front row this week.
“But I’m very happy with Nemo. He’s done well and I’m just hoping for a bit of luck.”
Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.
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Ray’s comments
Wednesday at Auckland
Race 5: Prince Lincoln
5.10pm
“I can’t believe he’s not picked in four (on the HRNZ website). He actually headed Cyclone Rebel last start but switched off. We’ve added sliding blinds which seem to have helped in training and he’s got to be a good each-way chance. He just needs a bit of luck from six on the gate.”
Race 5: Johnny Lincoln
5.10pm
“He’ll need some luck from the outside but hopefully he can still get a cheque. He doesn’t have as much speed as Prince Lincoln.”
Race 7: Spiritual Bliss
6pm
“I think she’ll be able to handle the rise in class. She’s a pretty good mare who keeps finding when the pressure goes on. It won’t be easy but she has a good draw and has already run a mile in 1:55.3.”
Race 7: Debbie Lincoln
6pm
“It’s hard to know how she compares with Spiritual Bliss but I think they’re both chances. Debbie Lincoln is still the fastest three-year-old to win over 1700 metres around Alexandra Park and she was excellent again when just pipped by Tyson last time.”
Race 12: Tyson
8.38pm
“The rise in class won’t stop him. If they go a bit harder, he can still run a 56 half off a solid pace. He’s improving all the time, more than I thought he would. He could easily win again.”
Race 12: Leo Lincoln
8.38pm
“We threw him in the deep end first-up when he really needed another trial. That race will bring him on a bit but I think he’ll need another before we see him at his best.”
