Captain Nemo is finishing on for fifth after a torrid trip last week.
Mark: Captain Nemo drops in grade and needs only average luck to be right there on Tuesday
By Barry Lichter • 20 November 2023
A significant drop in grade gives Captain Nemo gets his best chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Tuesday.
Trainer Mark Dux says the horse needs only average luck from the outside of the gate to be right there at the finish.
“He’s going well even though the (form) numbers don’t reflect it. I couldn’t tell you the last time anything went his way. We’re overdue for a bit of luck.”
Last week, Captain Nemo was left parked out when eventual winner Hy Voltage went to the lead in an up-to-rating 90 1660 and he did well to finish only 8 metres away in fifth place.
Driver Grant Dixon told Dux the horse had to do all the donkey work and would have earned a good cheque with any sort of luck.
Given Nemo’s two previous runs were from the second row in even stronger band 5 races, he will enjoy the step back to the up-to-rating 70 grade.
As the highest rated horse in the field on R70, he gets the worst alley, with main danger Midnight Calm (R67) immediately inside him.
“Midnight Calm will more than likely be the leader. We just have to hope that a couple inside him like Luvbite and Offyarocka Crocker come out under him early and make him run a bit. If he finds the lead easily and gets his own way he’ll run 1:52 and we won’t beat him.
“We’ll let them go crazy, go across behind them and come with one run. It would be stupid to go forward. We’d get parked for sure and you don’t want to be there when they running 1:52.”
Midnight Calm, a 15-race winner, has shown repeatedly he is capable of running that fast. Three starts back he ran a 2.8 metre second to Aroda, who clocked 1:52. Five starts back he was beaten half a head in 1:52.9, from the same gate six he has on Tuesday. And in August he won in 1:52.4.
After four second row draws, he returns to the front row this week.
“But I’m very happy with Nemo. He’s done well and I’m just hoping for a bit of luck.”
Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.
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It’s all up to Angus - Brisbane’s young gun needs to drive a pearler on Nemo at Redcliffe
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Mark Dux’s comments
Wednesday night at Redcliffe
Race 1: Captain Nemo
7.17pm NZ time
“It’s a reasonable field, they’re not push-overs, but they’re all beatable. It will all come down to who gets the right trip. If we have something go our way we could get some of it as there’s not a lot between them and I don’t think he’s far off now. We’ve got a bad draw again and there’s a bit of speed inside us so I’ll tell Angus to just play it by ear.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 4: Lincoln La Moose
7.32pm
“He’s a pretty good horse. He was still below his best last time at Cambridge - he needed the race - but went very well for second behind King’s Watch. With his ace draw, he should be right up there for Zac (Butcher). He always looked a bit delicate but he’s got tougher.”
Race 4: Obadiah Dragon
7.32pm
“He’ll go a good race but our others look better here. His last run was below par for him so we took a blood off him and he had a bit of a virus going on. He was at the tail end of it but it was enough to stop him.”
Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.32pm
“Even if he’s half a run short, I don’t think it will matter, he’ll still be too good for this lot. He only had a mild virus which came right with treatment and he’s trained on well since. He feels pretty good and if I was betting man, I’d bet him for sure based on his last run, which was massive.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.32pm
“He’s in a ‘coming of age’ phase. He rushed up beside them last start and wanted to lay all over them and give them a hug. But that’s normal coltish behaviour. He does that in training as well, rushes up and switches off. He has a lot of ability but also a few little behaviour traits that we need to get on top of.”
Race 6: My Copy
8.24pm
“It won’t be easy from four on the second row but he’s very honest and, if opportunity knocks, he’ll be right there. If he gets a trip, he’s always ready to pounce.”
Race 9: Tyson
9.39pm
“He should be one of the favourites. The raw ability is there and he’ll definitely win races as he has a bit of speed. How far he will take us we have yet to find out but I thought he did really well last time given the run he had.”
