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Captain Nemo is finishing on for fifth after a torrid trip last week.

Mark: Captain Nemo drops in grade and needs only average luck to be right there on Tuesday

A significant drop in grade gives Captain Nemo gets his best chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Tuesday.

Trainer Mark Dux says the horse needs only average luck from the outside of the gate to be right there at the finish.

“He’s going well even though the (form) numbers don’t reflect it. I couldn’t tell you the last time anything went his way. We’re overdue for a bit of luck.”

Last week, Captain Nemo was left parked out when eventual winner Hy Voltage went to the lead in an up-to-rating 90 1660 and he did well to finish only 8 metres away in fifth place.

Driver Grant Dixon told Dux the horse had to do all the donkey work and would have earned a good cheque with any sort of luck.

Given Nemo’s two previous runs were from the second row in even stronger band 5 races, he will enjoy the step back to the up-to-rating 70 grade.

As the highest rated horse in the field on R70, he gets the worst alley, with main danger Midnight Calm (R67) immediately inside him.

“Midnight Calm will more than likely be the leader. We just have to hope that a couple inside him like Luvbite and Offyarocka Crocker come out under him early and make him run a bit. If he finds the lead easily and gets his own way he’ll run 1:52 and we won’t beat him.

“We’ll let them go crazy, go across behind them and come with one run. It would be stupid to go forward. We’d get parked for sure and you don’t want to be there when they running 1:52.”

Midnight Calm, a 15-race winner, has shown repeatedly he is capable of running that fast. Three starts back he ran a 2.8 metre second to Aroda, who clocked 1:52. Five starts back he was beaten half a head in 1:52.9, from the same gate six he has on Tuesday. And in August he won in 1:52.4.

After four second row draws, he returns to the front row this week.

“But I’m very happy with Nemo. He’s done well and I’m just hoping for a bit of luck.”

Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.

Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them

Les Harding

Les Harding

Monday at Globe Derby

Racer 7: Beaudiene Rocknroll
6.51pm NZ time

Update: Late scratched

The horse has improved with his latest run (for second) and the field looks a little weaker this time. Ammicchi and Whata Optimist can fly the gate, so the lead might not be there, but with any sort of trip he should be very competitive again.

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Friday night at Auckland

Race 3: Lincoln Cove
6.38pm

“You wouldn’t know what he’s going to do. It depends whether he wants to win or not. He trained really well last week. This week he’s been going like shit. He gets in going right-handed, so he could be worse at Auckland.”

Race 3: Frisco Bay
6.38pm

“It’s impossible to predict what might happen from the second row draw but you can put a line through his last run, they went nothing and only sprinted up the straight.”

Race 5: Leo Lincoln
7.30pm

“He went another good race last week, slightly inconvenienced at a bad time. He wasn’t very quick out of the gate but did enough to hold up three fence. It’s a smaller field this time so it might be run a bit differently but he’ll need the right trip.”

Race 5: My Copy
7.30pm

“He went another good, honest race last week, but had to come four wide on the home turn. He’s better suited in a smaller field on Friday but will need all the breaks.”

Race 10: Obadiah Dragon
9.52pm

“I think he’s our best chance. He’s an improving horse who is right in the zone. He’s better than most people think and I’m sure he’ll go a good race.”

Mark Dux

Mark Dux’s comments

Friday night at Albion Park

Race 8: Captain Nemo
7.25pm NZ time

“He’s a top three chance given an ounce of luck. If they go stupid early, and we can get a nice tag into it, we won’t be far off. Parama, who has drawn inside us, might get going and take us into the race.”

Dan Costello Race Photography