The photo finish shows Argyle not far away in fifth last week.

Mark: You just have to roll the dice again with Argyle - he’s racing well but needs luck

Punters will have to roll the dice once again at Albion Park on Saturday night if they want to back Argyle from the second row.

Trainer Mark Dux says while Lincoln Farms’ pacer is racing well, the pattern of racing in Queensland means that sometimes things will go against him.

“If you draw the two alley you can make your own luck, but two the second row and you’re rolling the dice.

“Every week races are won here by leader, trailer or three fence, and sometimes the parked horse. But unless something pressures the horse that lobs in front it becomes too difficult for those trying to come from the back.

“I was pretty happy with his run last week for fifth - he just couldn’t win the way the race was run. Once the leader (Rock Supreme) was able to back off the second quarter in 30.6 and that other horse (Tashs Spartan) got to the death he couldn’t move on Argyle.”

Dux says from his second line draw Argyle did well to close to only 8.7 metres from the winner and his closing sectionals of 55.43 and 28.08 confirmed that.

Three wide trying to mount a challenge, Argyle clocked 27.34 for his third quarter, just two hundredths of a second slower than the best in the race - and he covered an extra 27 metres in the running.

“It all depends on where you lob in the race so I’m hoping he can get a nice run through and won’t be too far off them. “It’s a good even field with no standouts. On form there are three or four winning chances and we’re one of them.”

Dux says you have to fancy the chances of the horses drawn one and two.

Pole runner Pacifico Dream is a newcomer to the state and Grant Dixon’s team, having previously won 15 races in New South Wales, and on a rating of 112 is 37 points higher than Argyle.

The horse won New South Wales and Victoria Derby heats in 2020 when with Emma Stewart and Andy Gath later trained him to win a Vicbred Final.

But the now six-year-old has had issues and ran down the track in his last four starts for Alex Ashwood when resuming from a long spell in August and September.

“I don’t know the horse much but it ran third in a trial here last week and you’d think it would be tough to beat from a good alley.

“Luxury Lad’s last two wins were only at Redcliffe but they were in good times (1:53.6 and 1:54.9 mile rates for 1780 metres).”

* Meanwhile, Tommy Lincoln’s planned comeback on Saturday night fizzled when only five horses accepted for the race, leaving the horse stranded on 49th in the rankings for the Interdominion series with little chance of making the 36-horse cut-off before the final list is released on Wednesday.

Dux says the horse will now target easier races during the carnival which starts on December 1.

Argyle races at 10.56pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Argyle races at 10.56pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.

Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Friday night at Auckland

Race 1: Obadiah Dragon

“He’s the lowest rated in the field, so it will be tough for him, but he’s racing really well. He just doesn’t need any bad luck.”

Race 4: Lincoln La Moose

“You won’t see the best of him on Friday. It’s his first race since April and he’ll definitely need the run.”

Race 6: My Copy

“He’s no champion but he’s very honest and is always capable of finishing in the money. He only needs a fair crack at them.”

Race 7: Tyson

“You can forget about that debut run, it was a non-event for him the way the race panned out. He got way too far back and would need to have clocked ridiculous times to get into it. He has speed and feels like a nice horse but he’s very inexperienced. I wouldn’t expect him to round the others up but he won’t be disgraced.”

Race 7: Lincoln Lou

Update: Scratched on vet’s advice

“He’s a very nice colt. He’s a lot stronger this time in and he could develop into a serious horse. If he repeats his last run, he’ll be hard to beat. I think he might have the wood on Sugar Ray. He has better manners and probably a bit more speed too.”

Race 7: Sugar Ray Lincoln

“He won comfortably last time despite being three wide for much of the last lap and four wide turning for home. He’s a very good colt. There’s not much between him and Lincoln Lou.”

Race 9: Commander Lincoln

“He’s as honest as they come, he’d die for you, but he lacks a yard of sharp speed to be a serious horse. He has a draw upgrade and drops in class but things have to pan out for him.”

Mark Dux

Mark Dux’s comments

Friday night at Albion Park

Race 8: Captain Nemo
6.33pm NZ time

“It’s not an easy race and, from an average draw, we’ll drive him quietly again so he’ll be at the mercy of the tempo. If he gets the right trip, I could see him hitting the line well and sneaking into the money but after this run to tighten him up he’ll be all set to go, close to winning.”

Les Harding

Les Harding

Saturday night at Port Pirie

Race 5: Beaudiene Rocknroll
10.02pm NZ time

“I’m very happy with him and confident he’ll run a top race but it’s hard to predict how he’ll measure up given this is a big step-up in class compared with the horses he has raced against for his last two wins.”

Dan Costello Race Photography