The photo finish shows Argyle not far away in fifth last week.
Mark: You just have to roll the dice again with Argyle - he’s racing well but needs luck
By Barry Lichter • 17 November 2023
Punters will have to roll the dice once again at Albion Park on Saturday night if they want to back Argyle from the second row.
Trainer Mark Dux says while Lincoln Farms’ pacer is racing well, the pattern of racing in Queensland means that sometimes things will go against him.
“If you draw the two alley you can make your own luck, but two the second row and you’re rolling the dice.
“Every week races are won here by leader, trailer or three fence, and sometimes the parked horse. But unless something pressures the horse that lobs in front it becomes too difficult for those trying to come from the back.
“I was pretty happy with his run last week for fifth - he just couldn’t win the way the race was run. Once the leader (Rock Supreme) was able to back off the second quarter in 30.6 and that other horse (Tashs Spartan) got to the death he couldn’t move on Argyle.”
Dux says from his second line draw Argyle did well to close to only 8.7 metres from the winner and his closing sectionals of 55.43 and 28.08 confirmed that.
Three wide trying to mount a challenge, Argyle clocked 27.34 for his third quarter, just two hundredths of a second slower than the best in the race - and he covered an extra 27 metres in the running.
“It all depends on where you lob in the race so I’m hoping he can get a nice run through and won’t be too far off them. “It’s a good even field with no standouts. On form there are three or four winning chances and we’re one of them.”
Dux says you have to fancy the chances of the horses drawn one and two.
Pole runner Pacifico Dream is a newcomer to the state and Grant Dixon’s team, having previously won 15 races in New South Wales, and on a rating of 112 is 37 points higher than Argyle.
The horse won New South Wales and Victoria Derby heats in 2020 when with Emma Stewart and Andy Gath later trained him to win a Vicbred Final.
But the now six-year-old has had issues and ran down the track in his last four starts for Alex Ashwood when resuming from a long spell in August and September.
“I don’t know the horse much but it ran third in a trial here last week and you’d think it would be tough to beat from a good alley.
“Luxury Lad’s last two wins were only at Redcliffe but they were in good times (1:53.6 and 1:54.9 mile rates for 1780 metres).”
* Meanwhile, Tommy Lincoln’s planned comeback on Saturday night fizzled when only five horses accepted for the race, leaving the horse stranded on 49th in the rankings for the Interdominion series with little chance of making the 36-horse cut-off before the final list is released on Wednesday.
Dux says the horse will now target easier races during the carnival which starts on December 1.
Argyle races at 10.56pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Major Achievement
5.19pm
“It’s his first race for a while and he hasn’t been setting the world on fire at the workouts. But he’s been racing better animals and this isn’t a stellar bunch. He’s a chance if things go his way. I’ve given Mathew Salaivao the drive.”
Race 1: Commander Lincoln
5.19pm
“He’s an average horse but the last time he raced here in amateur company he all but won. He’ll need luck from the second row but, while I couldn’t label him, he’s a runner’s chance.”
Race 5: Onyx Shard
6.59pm
“She got a bit sick for a while with a virus and I had to back off her. She seems over that now but I’m picking she’ll need a race. This will be like a glorified trial for her.”
Race 8: My Copy
8.14pm
“He came to the end of it so I gave him a little freshen-up and he seems in good shape again. It will be interesting to see how he goes fresh - he may need a race but he’ll appreciate the step-down in class. I’m running him here so he doesn’t come up against any bear cats first-up.”
Race 9: Lincoln Cove
8.47pm
“Hopefully he’s getting better but you’ve just got to take him on trust. He has ability but the desire has been sadly lacking. Zac will have to sit quietly on him as he broke when given only one tap with the stick last time. The small field will suit him as he won’t be too far off them. If he doesn’t make any mistakes, he’ll give them a fright.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 3: Leo Lincoln
6.43pm
“Maurice said he would have finished a lot closer last time than sixth (fourth or even third) had he not locked wheels at the 100. That took all his momentum away. He’s been holding his form well and he gets out well enough to use the inside draw. He’s a chance to get some of the money.”
Race 5: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.39pm
“He did have marks on his boot after his last run and trying a spreader on him has helped. But he’s a real baby. He has real ability but he’s still developing mentally and physically and we’re still finding our way with him.”
Race 5: Lincoln Lou
7.39pm
“He’s racing well but he’ll find it tough from the outside draw.”
Race 6: Debbie Lincoln
8.07pm
“I can’t see her improving enough to give the Purdon/Phelan trio a fright. She can go (fast) enough but still has a lot to learn. The main thing for her is getting round safely. She’s put two in a row now so hopefully she’ll start improving.”
Race 10: Lincoln La Moose
9.59pm
“He had an excuse last time - he got wiped out on the first corner and that was the end of his race. I like him, he’s a nice horse, just not quite as experienced as Frisco Bay.”
Race 10: Frisco Bay
9.59pm
“I lean towards Frisky as the better chance of our two. You can’t fault what he did the other night at Cambridge, and he seems to be on the improve. He’s more reliable than Lincoln La Moose.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 6: Captain Nemo
9.40pm NZ time
“I rate him a good top three chance. I’m really happy with the horse. It’s a decent drop in grade for him and I think maybe we roll the dice, go forward, and take our chances. As long as he doesn’t have to burn stupidly off the gate, if he can find the top, they’ll know he’s in the race.”
