Captain Nemo will be very hard to beat if he can lead at Redcliffe tonight. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Nemo looks a winner but Tommy will have to settle for a place on tight Redcliffe circuit
By Barry Lichter • 12 March 2022
The draws at Redcliffe tonight point to Captain Nemo as a winning chance and Tommy Lincoln as no better than a place chance.
That’s the advice of trainer Mark Dux who takes Lincoln Farms’ pair to the tight 833 metre circuit with Albion Park still out of action.
Dux says it looks like repair work at the No. 1 Brisbane track will take another two or three weeks after the recent bad flooding.
“But we can’t sit at home doing nothing until then and while Redcliffe won’t really suit them - they can both hang a little - I’m not too worried.”
Dux says he plans to drive Captain Nemo a little harder out of the gate in tonight’s sixth race at 11.10pm NZ time, with the intention of leading from the pole.
“The 2040 metre start is good at Redcliffe from the inside and, if he leads, something would have to go wrong for him to be beaten.
“There are a couple outside him with a bit of speed but he’s better than them. He’s been racing better horses at Albion Park.”
Captain Nemo goes into tonight’s race fitter for his fresh-up run at Albion Park on February 2 when he fought hard after being parked outside the hot pot Juddy Douglas in a 1:55.4 mile rate.
Tommy Lincoln is lining up in the opener at 8.29pm NZ time for the first time in nearly five months after his resumption was delayed by a virus.
But, while Dux is very happy with how the horse is training, he says his second row barrier draw effectively sinks his winning chance.
“The favourite (former Southlander) Deus Ex should lead on his ear from three and, if he does, we won’t beat him. He’ll get no pressure and run a big half and you can’t get around them on the Redcliffe track.
“I’ll tell Angus (Garrard) to drive him for a place - drive him cold and let him run home. You can’t think that he can win unless things go pear shaped for the favourite.
“But I’ll be pleased if he can finish in the top three.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 8.29pm at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
Captain Nemo races at 11.10pm at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
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Nathan’s comments
Wednesday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Lincoln Maree
5.11pm
“She’s finding her feet and was a bit unlucky at Taupo. She put in a few rough ones out of the gate - she was like that early in her prep and could just jump out of it - but she’s generally doing things right now. She trained well on Saturday and, with the right run, could run top three.”
Race 3: The Night Fox
6pm
“He won really well on the second day at Hawera and if he races anything like he’s training he’ll be hard to beat. He ran a 27.3 quarter during the week and I was just sitting on him. I’ll tell Craig to go forward, set an even tempo and cut him loose at the 600. I think he’s our best of the night.”
Race 6: Lincoln Lover
7.35pm
“Hopefully he’s improved since Taupo when Fergie drove him a treat in front. I actually think he’s better coming off something’s back but I’ll leave it up to Fergie. He’s up a bit in grade but has the right draw to be in it all the way.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 5: Lincoln Wave
7.32pm
“He had an easy run last week and he can go a lot faster than that. He should be hard to beat. It won’t matter if he doesn’t find the lead from six, he’ll be just as effective coming from off the pace. He’s a pretty classy horse, classier than most of those against him.”
