Nemo’s draw gives him better chance than Tommy tonight but both racing well

Captain Nemo and Tommy Lincoln are both coming off excellent last-start placings but barrier draws look set to dictate their chances in the opening two races at Albion Park tonight.

Captain Nemo has fared best, drawn two in the second race from where trainer Mark Dux says the horse should easily secure the parked position.

But Tommy Lincoln will need more luck in the opener, from an awkward six gate, meaning he might have to be driven outside his comfort zone.

Dux was really taken by Captain Nemo’s brave second last start and thinks he’s a top four chance tonight at worst.

After coming round to sit parked outside the hotpot Targaryen just after the bell, Nemo looked to be toast on the home turn but fought back and came up just half a head short.

“In one more hop we would have won the race,” Dux said.

“We’re right up with them on Saturday and if things go his way he could quite easily win.”

Dux said the most likely scenario was that driver Angus Garrard would roll out alongside pole runner Lyrical Genius and sit there quietly.

“I think the one horse has enough speed to hold, if it wants to, and I don’t want us to get into speed battle unless one comes up three deep.”

In those circumstances Dux can see Lyrical Genius relenting and allowing Nemo to cross to the front. “Sumomentsomewhere looks the hardest to beat and if they got going early (from the second row) we wouldn’t let it cross.”

Of the rest, Dux said Bonnie Prince Louis “was really good the other night, doing a heap of work out of the gate and battling well,” and Lyrical Genius and the horse on his back Oaxacan Dream should get cushy runs.

Tommy Lincoln, markers, finishes a close-up third to Turn It Up and Uncle Shank last start.Tommy Lincoln isn’t likely to get such a good trip from wide on the gate in the opening race.

“It’s a shame he didn’t draw better because it’s a very winnable race.”

Dux really liked the way Tommy dug in after trailing last start, finishing only a neck and 2.6 metres third behind Turn It Up and Uncle Shank, in a 1:51.8 mile rate for 1660 metres.

“He’s probably going better now than six months ago but the times they’re running are ridiculously fast. That’s how competitive this class is.

“I don’t know what to do at the start on Saturday. If you drag him back to the tail it’s so much harder to get into the race. We’ll probably roll forward, let him relax, then Mathew (Neilson) can play it by ear.”

Dux doubts Tommy can cross the horse drawn immediately inside him, Rock Bottom, who has a lot of gate speed.

“We’ll probably roll forward and across with no urgency. As long as he doesn’t over-race. I’m not worried about him sitting outside the leader. He has sat there before and raced really well.

“But if he starts pulling, we’ll be in trouble.”

Ideally, Tommy could sit pat over the longer 2138 metres, let the leader go steadily, then have more firepower at the finish.

“I think he’s a better short course horse but he rarely runs a bad one. If he didn’t pull that little bit, he’d be a really nice horse.

“He’s still a good chance on Saturday - it will just come down to what kind of run he gets.”

Tommy Lincoln races at 8.16pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Captain Nemo races at 8.44pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.