Nemo’s draw gives him better chance than Tommy tonight but both racing well
By Barry Lichter • 7 January 2023
Captain Nemo and Tommy Lincoln are both coming off excellent last-start placings but barrier draws look set to dictate their chances in the opening two races at Albion Park tonight.
Captain Nemo has fared best, drawn two in the second race from where trainer Mark Dux says the horse should easily secure the parked position.
But Tommy Lincoln will need more luck in the opener, from an awkward six gate, meaning he might have to be driven outside his comfort zone.
Dux was really taken by Captain Nemo’s brave second last start and thinks he’s a top four chance tonight at worst.
After coming round to sit parked outside the hotpot Targaryen just after the bell, Nemo looked to be toast on the home turn but fought back and came up just half a head short.
“In one more hop we would have won the race,” Dux said.
“We’re right up with them on Saturday and if things go his way he could quite easily win.”
Dux said the most likely scenario was that driver Angus Garrard would roll out alongside pole runner Lyrical Genius and sit there quietly.
“I think the one horse has enough speed to hold, if it wants to, and I don’t want us to get into speed battle unless one comes up three deep.”
In those circumstances Dux can see Lyrical Genius relenting and allowing Nemo to cross to the front. “Sumomentsomewhere looks the hardest to beat and if they got going early (from the second row) we wouldn’t let it cross.”
Of the rest, Dux said Bonnie Prince Louis “was really good the other night, doing a heap of work out of the gate and battling well,” and Lyrical Genius and the horse on his back Oaxacan Dream should get cushy runs.
Tommy Lincoln, markers, finishes a close-up third to Turn It Up and Uncle Shank last start.Tommy Lincoln isn’t likely to get such a good trip from wide on the gate in the opening race.
“It’s a shame he didn’t draw better because it’s a very winnable race.”
Dux really liked the way Tommy dug in after trailing last start, finishing only a neck and 2.6 metres third behind Turn It Up and Uncle Shank, in a 1:51.8 mile rate for 1660 metres.
“He’s probably going better now than six months ago but the times they’re running are ridiculously fast. That’s how competitive this class is.
“I don’t know what to do at the start on Saturday. If you drag him back to the tail it’s so much harder to get into the race. We’ll probably roll forward, let him relax, then Mathew (Neilson) can play it by ear.”
Dux doubts Tommy can cross the horse drawn immediately inside him, Rock Bottom, who has a lot of gate speed.
“We’ll probably roll forward and across with no urgency. As long as he doesn’t over-race. I’m not worried about him sitting outside the leader. He has sat there before and raced really well.
“But if he starts pulling, we’ll be in trouble.”
Ideally, Tommy could sit pat over the longer 2138 metres, let the leader go steadily, then have more firepower at the finish.
“I think he’s a better short course horse but he rarely runs a bad one. If he didn’t pull that little bit, he’d be a really nice horse.
“He’s still a good chance on Saturday - it will just come down to what kind of run he gets.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 8.16pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Captain Nemo races at 8.44pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
More news in Harness
Lincoln Wave scorches in, still on target for richer races and Sammy’s making progress too
Johnny Lincoln’s big ticker will stand to him in the States and Lover’s also sold to Aussie
No Jumals to beat this time at the Park so Ray’s looking for Lincoln Wave to roll in
Lincoln Linda best of the night at Cambridge - she has the engine to cross Soul Artist
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Rivergirl Bella
5.44pm
“She did well here last time as she had to do a bit to get to the lead and she dug in and fought on. She’s certainly a chance if she repeats that effort.”
Race 4: Lincoln Linda
7.09pm
“I thought she went super last time after doing a lot of work. She can do that because she has an engine and is tough. She’s a bit one-dimensional - you have to turn her loose early - but from the two draw she should be able to lead and that’s where she does her best work.”
Race 5: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.34pm
“I think he’s a bit stronger after his spell. It’s not a great field - most will die on that mark - and I don’t see a problem with the standing start as he’s nicely gaited. He could be marginally unfit after three months out but he’s done quite a bit of work and I can see him going a half-decent race.”
Race 6: Lincoln Maree
7.59pm
“She had every chance last time but I can’t see why she won’t go well again. She’s as honest as they come and tries like hell.”
Race 7: The Night Fox
8.29pm
“You’d think he’d lead easily from the inside. He’s had bad draws and still got the money, so I’m sure he’ll go another good race. I’m surprised they sold him so cheaply. He’s better than people think.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Lincoln Wave
5.09pm
“With the trip he got in the Harness Million I thought he’d have run on a lot better. But he was still a bit short on fitness and sometimes we can expect too much of these horses, he was racing the best, after all. It’s a big drop in grade here and he’s a pretty fair horse.”
Race 1: Leo Lincoln
5.09pm
“He’s an honest sort who’s in a good space but he won’t get a wonderful trip from the outside of the gate this time so I’m not holding my breath.”
Race 3: Sammy Lincoln
6.04pm
“He’s training down well but you never know what he’s going to do. You think you’ve got him sorted and he does something silly. But we know if the real Sammy turned up, he’d be very hard to beat as he’s got a lot of speed.”
Race 5: Prince Lincoln
7.05pm
“He’s another where you don’t know which one will turn up but we’ve gelded him since his last run, so we’ll see if that helps. He trained well the other day.”
