Nemo’s the go at Albion Park on Friday night but speed map against Tommy on Saturday

Captain Nemo can repeat his brave win of last week at Albion Park on Friday night but the speed map looks dead against Tommy Lincoln there on Saturday.

Trainer-driver Mark Dux says, barring bad luck, Captain Nemo can win the eighth race and not even the prospect of a wet track should stop him from fighting out the finish.

“We’ve had a bit of rain and there’s supposed to be a lot more coming but that won’t worry him.

“I think he is probably the best horse in the race and it will just come down to his getting an ounce of luck.”

Dux says in all likelihood he will drive Captain Nemo similarly to last week when he looped the field to sit parked at the bell and proved too tough.

He drew the outside of the second row last week and has two the second line on Friday.

“I’ll follow them through and play it by ear but if they back off (the tempo) I’ll slip around.

“I think he’s hard to beat. He’s done really well this week.”

Captain Nemo is the second highest rated horse in the field, which is pretty much devoid of recent form, and is set to start a warm favourite.

Uphill task for Tommy

Tommy Lincoln, on the other hand, has an uphill task in the sixth race on Saturday night even though he has only five rivals.

“I thought I was being smart putting him in this race. We had two options and I picked this one because it was a random draw over a mile.

“The other race, over 2138 metres, was drawn on dollars won in their last three starts so he would have got six or seven or the second row.”

The luck of the draw went against Tommy, however, and from four Dux says it doesn’t read well for top junior driver Angus Garrard.

“It’s definitely a bad draw for him as he’ll be the one that has to do all the work. The two outside him (Lilac Flash and Northview Hustler) will go back and the three inside him all have gate speed.”

Dux sees hot pot Turn It Up crossing to the top from three and pole runner Fame Assured being keen to hold the trail.

That would leave Tommy Lincoln parked with Make Mine Memphis, a stablemate of Turn It Up, the likely one-one sitter.

“I can see them coming out of the gate for a hundred metres but that’s all they might do so it’s not ideal.

“If I go back four fence and they walk he’s no hope so I’m probably better to come out steady, sit in the chair, and hope he has some punch left at the finish. But the leader will be the one to beat.”

Tommy Lincoln, markers, is a close-up fifth last week behind Jeradas Delight, Make Mine Memphis, Northview Hustler and Speech Is Silver, wide out.Dux says Tommy Lincoln was unlucky not to have earned a bigger cheque last week when fifth to Jeradas Delight.

“I came out between the 400 and 300 but probably should have done it sooner. I thought the leader had started to get going so coming wide on a quick sectional would have made it hard.

“And when I did ease him out, his back leg touched a wheel and he put in a funny step.”

As it was Tommy closed in 55.22 and 27.5, exactly the same sectionals as the winner who enjoyed the perfect trail.

“I’m sure if he’d drawn inside them on Saturday he could have beaten them. He’s going as good as anything in the race.

“So much depends on draws here. So many races are won by the leader, the one behind the leader and outside the leader, and sometimes three back.

“With the sectional times they run you can’t come around them, mathematically you can’t do it. It’s not that your horse isn’t good enough. You often see a horse runs second last and it’s run the fastest sectionals in the race.”

Captain Nemo races at 8.48pm NZ time at Albion Park on Friday night.Tommy Lincoln races at 11.41pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.