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David Butcher has Copy That nicely in control of the Derby Prelude as One Change rushes home late.

Ray relying on Butch to ‘pull a rabbit out of the hat’ amid All Stars’ pressure in the derby

He might have the marginal favourite but the barrier draw and history tells trainer Ray Green that Friday night’s $200,000 Woodlands Northern Derby will be no stroll in the park for Copy That.

The All Stars’ Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen have dominated the derby in recent years winning four of the last five runnings, with Ultimate Sniper, Chase Auckland, Lazarus and Have Faith In Me. And in 2017 while Raukapuka Ruler, gifted the ace draw, broke their sequence Ultimate Machete looked dead unlucky to run only second, flashing late after a torrid wide run.

That coveted ace draw goes to Rasmussen’s drive One Change on Friday, whereas Copy That starts from four, with two other All Stars’ runners either side of him in Dina Bolt and Flying Even Bettor.

Copy That and David Butcher might have beaten One Change impressively in the Derby Prelude last week but the Christchurch visitor has shown in previous big races that he can take advantage of inside alleys, pipping Copy That from the ace in the Sires’ Stakes Final at Addington and taking the Sales Series Final at Auckland from two.

“One Change drawing one makes it difficult for us,” says Green. “It makes him the one to beat and we know that we’ll have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get the job done.

Green knows there will be fireworks early in the derby - “the All Stars will know that if they beat us, they’ll win the race.”

Green can see Rasmussen lighting up One Change out of the gate to hold the lead, knowing his own Tommy Lincoln, drawn in two, is also fast away.

And the All Stars’ Flying Even Bettor is also likely to be cast into the fray early from gate five, all factors which suggest Butcher will take it easy with Copy That in the opening stanza.

“But I’ll leave the driving tactics to David - I’m not going to interfere.”

What Green does know is that Copy That is primed for a big showing for Melbourne owners Merv and Meg Butterworth in his first tilt over 2700 metres.

Ray Green on the phone to owner Merv Butterworth after Copy That’s Derby Prelude win.Ray Green on the phone to owner Merv Butterworth after Copy That’s Derby Prelude win.“I didn’t particularly want him to go 2:37 last week - we didn’t go into the race expecting to win - but he seems to have pulled up OK.

“He’s trained all right during the week. He’s not one to be flashy but that’s how you want them. They’ve got to learn to relax.

“I couldn’t fault what he did last week and if he can win again on Friday night it would stamp him as the best three-year-old down under. He’s probably got the wood on Line Up and Perfect Stride (now winning in Australia).”

Green last won the Northern Derby in 2004 with Badlands Bute and says Copy That is much more versatile.

“Badlands Bute was a nice little horse in his day, but he was more a sit-sprinter. I don’t know if he could have done it rough like Copy That who can make his own luck.”

Badlands Bute … won the Northern Derby - New Zealand Derby double for Lincoln Farms in 2004.Badlands Bute … won the Northern Derby - New Zealand Derby double for Lincoln Farms in 2004.Green isn’t fazed by the presence of the All Stars’ dominant filly Amazing Dream in the derby, especially from wide on the front row.

“She’s handling the fillies pretty easily but I watched her last week and she was getting tired at the finish of the Oaks.

“Of course we have no idea how good she is as she hasn’t fronted up to the colts yet, but usually you’d say good colts will beat good fillies.”

Lincoln Farms’ two other derby hopes Tommy Lincoln and Man Of Action will both need plenty of luck, Tommy Lincoln best placed to get the good trip he needs from gate two.

“I’ve no idea how he’ll go over 2700 metres - he’s never been past 2200 metres - but we’ll find out.

“He’s pulled up well after running third (equal) last week but he’s going to need a good run, as will Man Of Action.

“He’ll need to get a good suck along and get out at the right time.”

Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Thursday night at Cambridge

Race 1: Major Achievement
5.19pm

“It’s his first race for a while and he hasn’t been setting the world on fire at the workouts. But he’s been racing better animals and this isn’t a stellar bunch. He’s a chance if things go his way. I’ve given Mathew Salaivao the drive.”

Race 1: Commander Lincoln
5.19pm

“He’s an average horse but the last time he raced here in amateur company he all but won. He’ll need luck from the second row but, while I couldn’t label him, he’s a runner’s chance.”

Race 5: Onyx Shard
6.59pm

“She got a bit sick for a while with a virus and I had to back off her. She seems over that now but I’m picking she’ll need a race. This will be like a glorified trial for her.”

Race 8: My Copy
8.14pm

“He came to the end of it so I gave him a little freshen-up and he seems in good shape again. It will be interesting to see how he goes fresh - he may need a race but he’ll appreciate the step-down in class. I’m running him here so he doesn’t come up against any bear cats first-up.”

Race 9: Lincoln Cove
8.47pm

“Hopefully he’s getting better but you’ve just got to take him on trust. He has ability but the desire has been sadly lacking. Zac will have to sit quietly on him as he broke when given only one tap with the stick last time. The small field will suit him as he won’t be too far off them. If he doesn’t make any mistakes, he’ll give them a fright.”

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Friday night at Auckland

Race 3: Leo Lincoln
6.43pm

“Maurice said he would have finished a lot closer last time than sixth (fourth or even third) had he not locked wheels at the 100. That took all his momentum away. He’s been holding his form well and he gets out well enough to use the inside draw. He’s a chance to get some of the money.”

Race 5: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.39pm

“He did have marks on his boot after his last run and trying a spreader on him has helped. But he’s a real baby. He has real ability but he’s still developing mentally and physically and we’re still finding our way with him.”

Race 5: Lincoln Lou
7.39pm

“He’s racing well but he’ll find it tough from the outside draw.”

Race 6: Debbie Lincoln
8.07pm

“I can’t see her improving enough to give the Purdon/Phelan trio a fright. She can go (fast) enough but still has a lot to learn. The main thing for her is getting round safely. She’s put two in a row now so hopefully she’ll start improving.”

Race 10: Lincoln La Moose
9.59pm

“He had an excuse last time - he got wiped out on the first corner and that was the end of his race. I like him, he’s a nice horse, just not quite as experienced as Frisco Bay.”

Race 10: Frisco Bay
9.59pm

“I lean towards Frisky as the better chance of our two. You can’t fault what he did the other night at Cambridge, and he seems to be on the improve. He’s more reliable than Lincoln La Moose.”

Mark Dux

Mark Dux’s comments

Saturday night at Albion Park

Race 6: Captain Nemo
9.40pm NZ time

“I rate him a good top three chance. I’m really happy with the horse. It’s a decent drop in grade for him and I think maybe we roll the dice, go forward, and take our chances. As long as he doesn’t have to burn stupidly off the gate, if he can find the top, they’ll know he’s in the race.”

Dan Costello Race Photography