Ray reveals his theory on why rank outsider Sammy Lincoln can play a hand in the derby

Ray Green knows Jumal ($1.16) has a stranglehold on Friday night’s $200,000 Woodlands Stud Northern Derby but he has a theory that could see Lincoln Farms’ rank outsider Sammy Lincoln ($81) get some of the money.

Green and his training partner Nathan Delany line up Sammy Lincoln and Lincoln Wave ($26) in the Alexandra Park classic which sees the three-year-olds tilt at the testing 2700 metre trip for the first time.

And for that reason, Green believes few, if any, of Jumal’s rivals will want to spend petrol early, given the hotpot looks a certain leader from the ace draw.

“I can’t see that anything will want to charge forward and savage Jumal so they could all end up ducking for cover.”

That, says Green, would give the sometimes goofy-footed Sammy, drawn the inside of the second row, a great chance of holding the trail behind Jumal.

Sammy Lincoln, widest, roars home from last in his last start at Auckland.Green knows that Sammy Lincoln has previously paced roughly at the start but says it will be up to high-flying junior driver Harrison Orange to make the call on how much to push him.

“If he can hold up, that would be marvellous as if anything can give Jumal a fright, it’s him. I know he’s still a maiden but he’s better than most of them ability-wise.

“He’s a classy big bugger who is very fast and if he ends up on Jumal’s back he’d be dangerous. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the fray as he has such a lot of ability.”

Sammy Lincoln, who is paying $23 to run second, $7.50 for third and $5.50 to run top four, is 0 from 7 but he’s shown real flashes of brilliance in some of his five placings.

And two starts back at Cambridge, his home stretch marker run from the back was one of the eye-catchers of the Sires Stakes Semi, when he lost third by a nose only through hanging out.

That feature was won by Sammy’s stablemate Lincoln Wave, at the outside opening odds of $101 but, while he was an excellent second last week in his final derby lead-up, Green says he’s been cruelled by the outside gate on Friday night.

“Based on the draws, Sammy looks a better chance than Lincoln Wave. Not many win from out there, especially in a Group I race.

“But I suppose he had a similar draw at Cambridge (six) and got lucky (squeezing into the trail when Nymbal broke) so you never know what can happen.”

Still, Green knows driver Maurice McKendry will need all kinds of luck on Friday night, with plenty of speed inside him.

“It won’t be easy for him but it would be nice to see him get a good trip as I think he’ll handle the 2700 metres as well as the others.

“He’s a nice racehorse - you can’t fault what he’s done - and I think we’ll see more of the same.”

Sugar Ray Lincoln has been racing very well despite tough trips. PHOTO: Megan Liefting/Race Images.Best of the night

Earlier in the night, Sugar Ray Lincoln ($7.50, $2.60) looks the best of Lincoln Farms’ three runners in the second race and its best chance of the night.

“He’s in good shape and you can’t fault what he’s doing. I don’t think the (seven) draw should make a lot of difference - he’s been parked in his last two and still got money.”

Last start, Copy That’s little brother sat without cover and also had to repel the three wide train yet still fought bravely in the run home to hold third behind The Jolly Roger and Lincoln Wave.

“You wouldn’t take a trifecta without putting him in.”

Colonel Lincoln ($23, $5.50) is at good odds in the same race for a horse Green says should show more in his third run back from a long injury-enforced spell.

“He’s come through his two runs well and we can be bolder with him from a front row draw.”

Buried four back on the markers last week, and held up for a run, Colonel Lincoln was little more than five lengths from winner Muchacho at the line.

The numbers don’t show it but Leo Lincoln ($16, $4.20) is racing really well.

Last at the bell last week, forced to keep angling wide and not really clear until 50 metres from home, Leo Lincoln ran his last 800 in 57.3, equal fastest in the race with the winner The Jolly Roger.

“He’s trained on well and should do well again. He just needs a bit of luck from the second row.”

Jessie Lincoln ($31, $6) and Rivergirl Bella ($46, $8) will also be relying on luck in the fourth race.

“At first I thought Jessie was very good, good enough to go against the good fillies but she hasn’t improved as much as I’d hoped.

“She’ll win a race or two, and will get one soon as she’s honest, but she’s still very green. And to be fair to her, she hasn’t had a decent enough run where you can really judge her yet.”

Last week Jessie Lincoln did a power of work in the first lap, pressing forward three wide to the breeze, yet still kept fighting in the stretch to run less than five lengths from the winner.

Green says Rivergirl Bella will find it tough from six on the gate as she has to be given an opportunist trip.

“She only has a little sprint but, if she doesn’t have to do too much, she can get home well.”

Only Prince Lincoln ($15, $3.60) knows what he’s going to do in the 10th race, says Green.

“If the real Prince Lincoln turned up he’d be in the money, but you never know with him.”

Two starts back, Prince Lincoln led and bravely fought off all but Mick Konstantin. But last week, leading from the same inside draw, he was attacked a long way from home and chucked it in to run seven lengths behind Muchacho.