Ray: We’re all running for second against King Of Swing but watch the Dealer go in the Derby
Copy That is flying but not even Lincoln Farms trainer Ray Green believes he will beat King Of Swing in Saturday’s A$250,000 Blacks A Fake Queensland Championship at Albion Park.
Green is delighted with how well Copy That ($9.50) has come through his thrilling win over King Of Swing in last weekend’s Sunshine Sprint but says with King Of Swing drawn to lead from the pole, it makes the 2680 metre feature a “gimmee” for the Sydney giant.
“It’s hard to make a case for anything else,” says Green. “It’s actually robbed the race of a lot of interest. Nobody will bet against him and he’s too short to bet on ($1.18).
“We’ll have to be handy to him to be able to outsprint him and I don’t think we’ll get close enough. King Of Swing will throw in a 26 quarter and we’ll be spotting him three lengths turning for home.
“That makes it almost impossible to beat the horse.”
That’s exactly what happened when King Of Swing took the 2020 Blacks A Fake when it was moved because of Covid to last December. The horse led and reeled off a 26.2 last 400 to easily beat Colt Thirty One and Turn It Up in a 1:58.5 mile rate.
Green says having one of the best drivers in the business, Anthony Butt, handling Copy That might also not be enough, given he has to weave some magic from five on the gate.
“The thing is Luke McCarthy is every bit as good a driver as Anthony and he’s driving the hot favourite, drawn one. But if we can run second, I’ll be happy.”
Copy That, who has racked up two wins and a close second in his three Brisbane starts, will be on a flight home on August 8 for a short break but none of his travelling companions will be returning with him.
Last start for Green
Saturday night’s A$102,000 Queensland Derby will be American Dealer’s last start for Green and Lincoln Farms, the American owned three-year-old due to move to Kevin Pizzuto’s Sydney barn.
And Tommy Lincoln, who looks a leading chance in the opening race, will continue to campaign in Brisbane, along with Captain Nemo, for Green’s host Mark Dux.
Green has high hopes that American Dealer ($3.90) can go out on a winning note, his perfect two draw giving him a real edge over hot favourite Krug ($1.70) drawn to follow him out from the second row.
“If Dealer gets beaten it will be Krug who does it. He’s got the others covered - he’s capable of sitting parked and beating them.
“It’s certainly better to be in front of Krug than behind him and right now I think he’s vulnerable.
“From all accounts Krug was pretty tired after the Rising Sun. He didn’t race last week but they say he’s bounced back. Whether that race has taken its toll, we’ll find out.
“Krug is a beautiful horse but I don’t think he’s as strong as he’s going to get. But he’s certainly speedy enough and classy enough.”
Green doesn’t believe the longer 2680 metres will bother American Dealer who was very brave when winning last week’s South East Derby over 2138 metres.
“He’s gone that trip before and the little guy is a lot stronger now than when he ran behind Krug in the NZ Derby and Great Northern Derby.
“Back then he was always going good races but he needed a trip. Now he can rough it and that’s the difference, you’ve got to be versatile at the top.”
Green can see Butt wresting an early lead on American Dealer and, with Krug on his back, the race could turn into a real tactical affair.
“The imponderable is whether some of the lunatic drivers drawn wider will launch off the gate.”
The plot looks a lot simpler in the opener when Tommy Lincoln will be shooting for his third win on the trip.
“He should lead easily from two and has got to be hard to beat. It’s only a mile, which is his best go, and if he throws in a 54.5 again they’ll be flat getting round him.”
Green says Tommy Lincoln seems over the foot abscess which flared last week.
“He’s good now, he’s feeling well. He got over the foot trouble in a couple of days.”
Tommy Lincoln is well up to beating the quality of field he meets on Saturday night, says Green.
“That horse of Luke McCarthy’s in one, Fairy Tinkabell, is supposed to be quite good but you’d think Luke would be happy to follow us.”
Green says the horse’s winning run won’t be over this weekend either.
“Tommy’s got another two wins before he has to run against the top horses here.”
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Our runners this week
Saturday night at Albion Park
Our runners this week: How our trainer rates them
Friday night at Auckland
Race 2: Frisco Bay
“He obviously needed the run last week. He pulled his way round the field and sat outside the leader but he couldn’t cop a run like that first-up and got tired. The ability is there, whether he’s fit enough or not we’ll find out. But I expect him to go well, the three draw is much better than last week.”
Race 2: Lenny Lincoln
“He’ll probably need a race but he’s capable of running a slot. He’s unlucky not to have won a race, all three of his seconds were good. He’s got a bit better with each of his trials this time in and he got home well last Saturday, after coming widest on the turn.”
Race 3: Obadiah Dragon
“The way the race was run at Cambridge last week, his effort wasn’t bad at all. Moni (Monika Ranger) said he felt strong and, if he’d been a few slots closer, he would have been right in it. He’ll be improved for the run.”
Race 3: Leo Lincoln
“He’s very consistent - he’s only missed a couple of cheques. But he’s another just coming back and should improve with the run.”