Redcliffe saucer has tripped many so even an in-form Billy Lincoln is a little vulnerable

If there’s one thing trainer Al Barnes knows it’s that you can never take a horse to Redcliffe for the first time and declare it a winner.

That’s why he’s slightly reserved about his predictions on what Billy Lincoln will do in the third race there this afternoon.

Billy Lincoln will start a hot favourite in the 2040 metre race, after three wins and a close second in four starts in Queensland. But while Barnes is in no doubt he is the best horse in the race, he says from the outside gate on the very tight track, he can’t label him.

“The turns are very tight, especially the one in the back straight, and while he’s pacing well at Albion Park, he may get on a knee at Redcliffe.”

Barnes has been forced to race Billy Lincoln on the triangular 833 metre track, with its short 170 metre home straight, during the three to four weeks it will take to resurface Albion Park with crusher dust.

“Some handle it, some don’t and some love it. Billy may need a look at the track. Lincoln Road was rough his first time there and the second time he paced beautifully.”

Barnes says from six on the gate, with only a short run to the first turn, his son Hayden won’t even attempt to burn out and cross the field.

“We won’t have a plan, Hayden will just assess how he feels but he’ll probably let him balance up and come with one run. It’s not a strong field and he’s the best horse in the race so hopefully he should be OK.”

Redcliffe is a very tight triangular circuit and there’s a short run to the first bend from the 2040 metre release point.The Bettor’s Delight three-year-old, whose picket fence form line was spoiled by a head defeat two starts back, goes into the race as a 1:55.5 mile rate winner at Albion Park from the second row, when he showed speed to take control at the bell.

Billy Lincoln also showed great heart to fight back in the stretch after being headed turning in.

But you only have to look at the Redcliffe track stats to discover why it’s not an easy task to win from the outside of the arm.

Of the 650 horses who have started there in the last 12 months only 49, or 7.5%, have won.

Compare that with the percentage of winners from gates one to five - 17.3%, 11,4%, 13.6%, 11.3% and 10.2% - and it’s obvious why not to take ridiculously short odds on Billy.

Billy Lincoln races at 4.42pm NZ time at Redcliffe on Friday.