Slip in the ratings gives Colonel Lincoln his best chance to regain form on Friday night

You’d never pick it from a cursory glance of his form line but there are some pretty compelling reasons why co-trainer Ray Green rates Colonel Lincoln ($8.50) a winning chance at Auckland on Friday night.

It’s been 18 months since the now six-year-old last won but 13 months of that was spent on the sideline, recovering from his third tendon injury.

Before Colonel Lincoln went amiss again in March, 2025, his form line read 2121312 and his rating had reached R60.

In his last race that year he finished ninth, but only 3.4 lengths from Lincoln Farms Founders Cup winner Jolimont, behind headliners Frisco Bay, Little Spike, Republican Party, Dalton Shard, Mo’unga, Kango and Chase A Dream.

With only one placing in nine starts since resuming, Colonel Lincoln’s rating has slid all the way down to R43 and on Friday he faces easily the weakest field of his career, his mostly out-of-form rivals between R35 and R41.

“You’d have to rate him the best horse in the field and he’s race fit now,” Green said. “And I thought he was pretty good last time.”

Though only eighth, the $200,000 sale-topping yearling used plenty of petrol early, sent forward from his outside gate at Cambridge, and caught three wide round the first turn before parking outside Mama’s Wish.

Though he understandably tired late, Colonel Lincoln battled away bravely to be only 5.6 lengths behind smart winner War Party, clocking a very fast 2:39.17 for the 2200 metres.

His time was faster than that of Friday’s hot favourite Blackjack ($1.75), who paced 2:39.54 when third behind Merle Mary earlier in the night, after enjoying a cosy marker run throughout.

Blackjack has drawn to get another sweet trip on Friday, while Colonel Lincoln is on the outside, but if Nathan Delany can secure a decent trip, Green says he’d have to be a serious chance.

Green also gives a chance to another of Lincoln Farms’ runners with no form, Copy Ten Four ($14, $2.20) who gets the ace in the third race.

The three-year-old had no idea what he was doing on debut a Cambridge on August 14 but showed immediate improvement last week when sixth behind No More Dreaming in 2:41.72.

Driven aggressively by Maurice McKendry, Copy Ten Four did a power of work early, wide round the first bend before parking after about 500 metres.

Still holding third 150 metres out, before being swamped late, Green was impressed that he could stick on to be only 3.3 lengths behind the winner.

“He got a bit tired but he didn’t stop. With a better draw this time, hopefully he’ll hold up in front and we can see what he’s got.

“He’s a good maiden and we haven’t seen the best of him yet, he’s a big horse who is still learning.”

Green knows Awesome Choice ($2.45) is the one to beat, after his huge recovery from an early break last start, but gives his charge a chance to get some of the money.

He is not so confident with Leo Lincoln ($19, $4.40) who is on the wrong side of a 21-point rating spread in the eighth race.

Leo Lincoln’s best efforts have been off cushy trailing trips, like the one three starts back at Auckland when third to Rubira and Jeremiah.

But on the whole, 1700 metres has not been his friend, his record very thin at one win and one placing from 15 attempts.

“He’ll go another honest race but it’s hard to see him winning,” Green said.