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American Dealer has beaten Krug twice and is ready to test him again in Friday night’s New Zealand Derby. PHOTO: Trish Dunell.

The bookies have got it wrong - a drop of luck and Dealer’s the one to test Krug in the derby

American Dealer might have a second row draw to overcome in Friday night’s $200,000 New Zealand Pacing Derby but how the bookies have dropped him is beyond trainer Ray Green.

Despite being the second most accomplished horse behind hot favourite Krug, Lincoln Farms’ star three-year-old is rated only the sixth favourite for the Addington classic, bookies offering a generous $11 and $3.50.

“I can’t work out their logic. He’s paying a lot more than some of those he’s flogged in the past. And he’s beaten Krug (twice) which none of those they rate above him have done.

“I know he’ll need some luck from three on the second row but you certainly can’t discount him like the bookies.

“He’s never run a bad race in his life and if he gets a good trip he’ll be right there, he always is.”

Green says American Dealer performed way above what he expected at Auckland on March 26, resuming from a break during which time he also picked up a stable bug.

Ray Green … Dealer’s last start second was “superb”.Ray Green … Dealer’s last start second was “superb”.“I thought he was superb running second against a better bunch than he meets on Friday, Krug excepted.

“It was his first time against some pretty good open class horses. Usually that transition is hard but he was unlucky not to win.”

Taken back from the outside of the arm by Zachary Butcher, American Dealer was still third last 500 metres out when he launched three wide.

“He was five wide round the corner on a 56 half and still got within 1.3 lengths of winner Dance Time in 2:39.4.”

American Dealer was clocked home from the 800 in 55.7, easily the fastest in the race and seven tenths of a second faster than third-placed Kango.

And his final mile of 1:56.9 was also clearly the fastest in the race and trumped the winner’s time by a full two seconds.

Green says he’s confident American Dealer is in the right nick to be a real threat to Krug.

“It’s just a question of how the start works out. I think Blair will go forward with Krug and try to slot in. I can’t imagine him going back, he won’t want to be stuck behind the riff raff.

“And if he led he’d be the one to beat but, remember, it’s 2600 metres and he wouldn’t want to burn too much gas to get there.”

Green reports both American Dealer and his travelling companion Arden’s Horizon, who will contest Friday night’s Welcome Stakes, arrived safely in Christchurch on Saturday afternoon after leaving Pukekohe the previous morning.

“Both travelled well and haven’t missed a bit of feed since. They’re feeling pretty good.

“They trained a little bit this morning, just had a bowl around and both felt really good. They’re ready to go.”

Green says Arden’s Horizon deserves his shot at the southern two-year-old feature after his impressive last start win at Auckland.

Unlucky on debut, when he dragged a punctured tyre for most of the race, Arden’s Horizon lacks experience but Green says you can put most of his Welcome Stakes rivals in the same boat.

“He hasn’t quite worked out what’s going on yet but he’s got a bit of speed and he’s a lovely pacer.

“He deserves the chance and the trip away and the race will be good experience for him.

“The six draw is are a bit of an inconvenience but I’m sure he’ll go well.”

Hail Lucius rips home along the inner to run an eye-catching third to Arden’s Horizon.Hail Lucius rips home along the inner to run an eye-catching third to Arden’s Horizon.Plagued by bad draws

Green’s bad luck with barrier draws doesn’t end with the Addington meeting, his home pair Hail Lucius (drawn seven) and Smokinhotcheddar (inside second row) also hampered at Alexandra Park.

Hail Lucius showed a glimpse of his ability last time when rattling home to run 2.5 lengths third to Arden’s Horizon, reeling off the fastest closing 400 metres in 27.6.

His recovery was a feature of the race after he paced roughly on the home corner and dropped off the tail of the field by a couple of lengths.

“We’ve done a bit of vet work on him since - a hind ankle was bothering him. If he handles the corners he’ll be right there.”

Smokinhotcheddar will need a bit of luck but at least from the inside of the second row she won’t get parked this time, which is where she’s been the last two races.

“She’s racing well and it would be nice to see her get a good trip.”

Our runners this week

Saturday night at Albion Park

Argyle.

Our runners this week: How our trainer rates them

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Friday night at Auckland

Race 1: Lincoln La Moose
5.43pm

“Drawn well, he should get a good trip and be the one to beat. He got held up at Cambridge last time and these amateur races are easier to win.”

Race 1: Commander Lincoln
5.43pm

“The form line doesn’t show it but he actually went ok last time, they just sprinted and left him flat-footed. He’ll go his usual honest race.”

Race 2: Angelic Copy
6.16pm

“She and Linda train and trial together and are much more forward than the others. She’s a proper little tradesman who can do whatever you want and she tries hard.”

Race 2: Prince Lincoln
6.16pm

“He’s not as forward as the fillies. He’s still learning and can do nothing but improve.”

Race 2: Lincoln Lover
6.16pm

“He’s another who will benefit from the experience but he’s by Bettor’s Delight and they tend to lift their game when the money’s up.”

Race 2: Rivergirl Bella
6.16pm

“She has a bit of speed but is not as tractable as Linda - she doesn’t handle the corners quite as well and might be a little better left-handed. But she’s as good as any of them at the moment and, in the small field, should get her chance.”

Race 2: Lincoln Linda
6.16pm

“Though drawn the outside, she should really be the one to beat, based on her trial. She’s quite a strong filly, who is well gaited and should go forward. Maurice (McKendry) has driven her two or three times and he likes her.”

Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.08pm

“He should be dangerous against what is not a wonderful bunch. He trialled well, a nose behind Lewey Maguire (home in 56.4). All three of mine are nice horses and should be right there.”

Race 4: Tyson
7.08pm

“He was laying in on the corners last time at Cambridge and it was just a sprint home. He needs to be driven a bit more aggressively - he’s gone his best races when he’s been put in the race. Remember he sat parked when third to Arna’s good one (Chase Me) in December. He can tough it.”

Race 4: Colonel Lincoln
7.08pm

“He’s training down well, as good as you could expect. He’s done nothing wrong in three starts back. The outside draw is an inconvenience but, when he slots in, he won’t be far off them.”

Race 7: Kevin Kline
8.38pm

“He got held up last time and the winner got away on him. He should get a nice trip from one. He’ll go another honest race and will be in it for a while.”

Race 7: Debbie Lincoln
8.38pm

“She could be quite a nice filly. The way she’s developing I think she’ll be competitive against the better fillies later in the year. She’s quite versatile and can race tough. She has a lot of potential.”

Race 7: Frisco Bay
8.38pm

“He’d be on a par with Debbie for speed but he can get a bit carried away. Hopefully he can get a nice suck into it. I can’t fault the way they’re training and whichever of the two gets the best trip should win.”

Whales Harness