This is it, Sammy, the draw’s a bit of a pain but you can eat these non-winners for breakfast

Despite his inside second row draw, Sammy Lincoln needs only average luck to break through for his first win at Auckland on Friday night.

Co-trainer Ray Green’s assessment reflects the bookies’ opening quote of $1.75, making Sammy the hottest favourite of the night.

“I know we’ve said it before but he has been unlucky a few times and, all things being fair and square, it’s hard to see him beaten.

“The draw is awkward but everything points to him winning. There are no derby horses in there and he went a great race in the Northern Derby last start.”

Sammy Lincoln … back to maiden class, it looks his race to lose. PHOTO: Trish Dunell.Sammy Lincoln raced right up to Green’s expectations in the three-year-old classic on May 1, trailing three back on the markers and finishing powerfully for fourth behind Jumal, Allamericanplayer and Special Occasion.

The gelding’s closing sectionals in the 2700 metre Group I feature were a creditable 56.6 and 27.9, splits which Green says most of his non-winning opposition on Friday would struggle to match over 2200 metres.

The effort confirmed his fourth in the Sires’ Stakes Semi at Cambridge three starts back was no fluke, when he motored home from the rear behind stablemate Lincoln Wave, Cyclone Rebel and Special Occasion in a 1:53.3 mile rate sizzle.

Sandwiched in between those two runs was an unlucky second at Auckland when he went back from a wide draw and flashed home wide out, pipped a neck.

Green knows it has been eight starts now without a win but says only bad luck, not Friday’s weaker opposition, could stop him this time.

Three stablemates

Lincoln Farms lines up three other runners in the race including stable newcomer Spirit Of God ($8, $2.10), whose owner Dave Phillips has been enjoying such a good run with Spiritual Bliss since she moved to the Pukekohe stable.

A six-year-old Gold Ace mare, Spirit Of God is 0 from 11 and has not raced for seven months but looked very sharp when leading all the way to beat race rival Rahm in a workout on May 6.

“She bolted in at the workouts, leading out from a wide gate and getting home in 27.9. She’s a great driving little mare and has good manners.

“I could see her winning one very soon.”

Jessie Lincoln ($31, $4.60) is at much longer odds but Green says she’s capable of finishing in the first three.

“I can’t see her beating Sammy Lincoln but with a good draw at last you’ll see a better performance.”

Jessie Lincoln’s form line may look bleak but her fresh-up run at Cambridge was a real eye-catcher, when she rushed home after seemingly losing all chance with a gate break. And, from bad draws, she has endured horror trips in her last two runs, covering a huge amount of extra ground.

“She’s another who seems to find trouble or make her own bad luck but she has ability and trained well this week.”

Training partner Nate Delany owns Lincoln Farms’ fourth runner, Marylynes Boy ($23, $3.90) and he was amply pleased with his debut effort for sixth at Cambridge.

Despite being caught back on a snail’s pace, the two-year-old Vincent colt made up good ground.

“He’s a tidy little horse,” Green said. “I can’t see him winning from the (second row) draw but he’s like Spirit Of God, he’s not far away from winning one.”

Toss-up

Lincoln Farms provides two of the six runners in the next race, drawn the two inside berths, and Green says it’s a toss-up between them.

“Sugar Ray Lincoln ($6, $1.60) is a bit stronger perhaps than Leo Lincoln ($13, $2.15) but they’re both racing well.

“Sugar Ray has been a late developer. You can see it in his growth, his withers have finally popped up, and he’ll get better as time goes on. He’s no champion but he should be a handy horse through winter.”

Sugar Ray Lincoln’s form this prep has been excellent and it was only at his last start that he enjoyed a half decent trip, powering home from three back with the best closing sectionals - his last mile in 1:55.6 and 800 in 56.3 behind Social Distancing.

Green isn’t worried at the four-year-old’s comparative lack of standing start experience and the fact he steps from the inside.

While safe but slow in his only try at Cambridge in March, Green says he “is capable of stepping away fairly well.”

Leo Lincoln is a toff from the stand and his formline hides some excellent runs this campaign. “You can forget that last run in the Messenger - he was only in there to help get the race off the ground.”

Prince Lincoln paces a sizzling 2:00.13 for 1700 metres last week. PHOTO: Therese Davis.Early fixed odds mover

Prince Lincoln ($7, $2.40) was the big early mover in the market in the last race, from an opening quote of $11, and Green is hopeful of another good showing after his electric last-start win on the course.

Harness Racing New Zealand records show only four three-year-olds have paced faster 1700 metre races at Alexandra Park and two of those didn’t count as records because they were in running second.

Prince Lincoln, rated R35, clocked 2:00.13, just outside three-year-old record holder Greased Lightning’s 2:00 flat, achieved as an R55 pacer in February, 2025.

Lincoln Farms’ former top filly Debbie Lincoln holds the outright three-year-old record at 1:59.92, set last October when an R48.

More The Better was a R101 pacer when he clocked 1:59.64 when second to Heaven Rocks in the 2017 Lincoln Farms’ Founders and Franco Indie was R71 when he ran second to Self Assured in the Summer Series Free-for-all in February, 2022.

From the inside of the second row on Friday night, driver Peter Ferguson won’t be able to adopt the same catch-me-if-you-can tactics which Harrison Orange used to such good effect last week. But Green sees a chance for him to nevertheless get a sweet trip - Prince Lincoln follows out the speedy Dear God, who likes to lead.

“Inside second row draws can be awkward - you’re at the mercy of the others - but he could end up with a good trail behind the leader.”