Tommy can’t win the Gold Cup at Redcliffe but he’s racing better than a 100-to-one chance

Realistically, Tommy Lincoln can’t win Saturday night’s A$106,000 Redcliffe Gold Cup.

But while the barrier draw has all but extinguished his chances in the Group One 2613 metre stand, trainer Mark Dux says the horse is racing out of his skin and is no 100-to-one no-hoper.

“It’s a strong field, these horse are almost as hard as you’ll get here, Spirit Of St Louis aside. But while I’m disappointed we didn’t come up with a nicer alley, he’s good enough to be there. And at least we’re not going there thinking we’re a million-to-one.

“Everything is against us but, if they go hard, while not a realistic winning chance, we know he’ll finish off hard.”

Dux says from four on the second row all he can do is drive Tommy quietly and hope for a bit of luck.

“You’re kidding yourself if you think you can pop out at the 1200 and circle them. If you spend all your pennies mid-race you’ll have nothing left at the finish.

“We’ve just got to put him on a helmet and if they go hard he’ll follow and have something to offer. It will just be a matter of getting the right splits when we need them.”

While Tommy’s form line might look ordinary, and he was beaten 11 metres when seventh last start, Dux says the horse is racing really well, without any luck.

Tommy ended up four deep on the markers last week at Redcliffe and Dux says had he not been stuck behind a horse going nowhere he might have landed a cheque.

“We were held up until we straightened and I had to drag him right across their heels and only had 60 to 80 metres to wind up.

“He really hit the line hard, he was charging. Apart from the first three horses you could have thrown a blanket over the others and I thought he hit the line better than anything else in the field.”

Tommy Lincoln recorded closing sectionals of 55.5 and 27.39, on a par with winner Manlia Playboy’s 55.46 and 27.45.

“I’m more than happy with him and he’s done super since that last race.”

Captain Nemo in the pink colours, over-racing in the death seat at his last start.Earlier in the night Lincoln Farms’ stablemate Captain Nemo lines up for the first time in seven weeks during which time things have hardly gone right for him.

“We’ve had a few hiccups,” Dux said. “He had muscle tie-up and then we had all that rain, and he missed a trial when he was a bit off colour.

“I haven’t been over the moon with him but his work in last couple of hitouts has been good and I’ve been much happier. He’s nearly back to normal.”

Dux has had to “throw the horse in the deep end” on Saturday night after trying repeatedly to get him into easier midweek races which haven’t held up.

“He needs to race. I’m hoping for a forward showing but it will all depend on where he ends up in the run.

“The one draw is good but I won’t be rushing him out. Every time I’ve tried that I don’t think he’s been as effective. I’ll let him come off at his own bat and play it by ear.”

Captain Nemo races at 6.44pm NZ time at Redcliffe on Saturday night.Tommy Lincoln races at 10.13pm NZ time at Redcliffe on Saturday night.