Tommy right in it from four on Friday but last-start winner Nemo has a nightmare draw
If things go to plan, Tommy Lincoln can run top four for Lincoln Farms at Albion Park on Friday, says trainer Mark Dux.
But a horror outside draw has taken brave last-start winner Captain Nemo right out of contention in his event.
Tommy Lincoln starts from four on the gate in the final race, giving him the chance to cross to the lead with three lesser lights drawn inside him.
That’s a stark contrast from his last start two weeks ago when, from the outside of the gate in the Lord Mayors Cup, he was always out the back.
Despite beating only one home, Tommy, a $146 outsider, was clocked over his last 800 metres in a slick 54.33, and 400 in 26.97, his sectionals again right up with the money-winners.
Mach Da Vinci ran 53.92 and 26.55, no better than Tommy’s effort given he travelled 14 metres more in the running.
“He (Mathew Neilson) let Tommy coast up the straight too, didn’t knock him around.
“He’s running consistently fast sectionals. In these races it’s just where you land and how the race is run. Not many can come from the back.
“This week we’ve got to roll the dice - go forward and hopefully put him on the front end.”
Dux says the speed Tommy’s been showing at the start gives him a good chance of crossing Escalera, drawn immediately inside him.
“We just don’t want to fire him up too much and run the risk of him cutting his air off again.
“It will all depend on how much work we have to do at the start. If we can get the lead easily enough he’ll be more than competitive. I could see him being right there.
“Uncle Shank and Turn It Up are the two to beat over a mile but the only one I’d like to hand to is Uncle Shank. We don’t need to end up three back.”
Dux says his daughter Madi, home from Leeton in New South Wales for Christmas, will have no option but to drive Captain Nemo cold in the seventh race and hope he can run home.
“It’s a nightmare of a draw and a tough field. I’d have preferred the back row to seven.
“He’s been wanting to run the gate but she’ll have to try to get him back and take short cuts. He went terriffic (to win) the other day but you’d gut him trying to go forward in this field unless a lot of them dragged back hard.”
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Les Harding
Monday at Globe Derby
Race 6: Beaudiene Rocknroll
6.34pm NZ time
This race will tell us how he measures up against the local horses. We decided to go for this lower graded race, despite having lower prize money, instead of going to the trials one more time. He won the second of two trials on April 21, beating race rival Hezrockinroyalty by four metres. Run over 2230 metres he clocked 57.7 for his last half and 1:59.7 for his last mile. From the pole he’ll start short and be hard to beat.
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 7: Lincoln Lou
8.25pm
“He’s a beautiful little horse who doesn’t do anything wrong. He got held up at a crucial time last week and got home well (for sixth). He gets out pretty well so should get a good trip from two. He’ll go his usual honest race. He’s improving all the time, he’s a gutsy little guy, but whether he can measure up to the favourites remains to be seen.”
Race 7: Sugar Ray Lincoln
8.25pm
“He’s a work in progress and we’re still dabbling with his gear. He’s actually a naturally good-gaited horse, like all the American Ideals, but he’s going through a stage of not really knowing why he’s out there. You just don’t know when he’ll click but three is an ideal draw for him and he should be handy if he does things right.”
Race 9: Leo Lincoln
9.20pm
“He’s an under-rated horse, as good as those others who are higher rated. He’s proving to be a tidy horse and, while he’s not viewed as a serious player by some, I think he is. He was closing off really well last week behind Hugotastic.”