Tommy’s treacherous draw - he’s at the mercy of how hard two hot former Kiwis run the gate

The driving tactics on two former Kiwis will decide whether Tommy Lincoln has any chance at Albion Park on Saturday night.

Lincoln Farms’ six-year-old toiler has again drawn badly in the 1660 metre feature, at the mercy of what goes on ahead of him from the inside of the second row.

And trainer Mark Dux says the decisions Nathan Dawson makes on new Kiwi import Hot And Treacherous and, more critically, Shane Graham behind gate flyer Turn It Up, will decide Tommy’s fate.

“The one horse (American Outlaw) isn’t the best one to draw behind because it doesn’t burn off the gate, so we have to hope only one horse gets across him and holds.

“Three back gives us a chance of earning a cheque, we can finish in the top three. But if we end up four back we’re in a spot of bother. Then a lot of things have to go your way.”

Dux can see Hot And Treacherous first on the scene given how well the former Bunty and Gareth Hughes-trained pacer has been trialling. He has won both his 1660 metre preps, the latest in a 1:52.7 mile rate.

Hot And Treacherous, obscured, only just goes down to Copy That in a New Zealand record 3:16 for 2700 metres at Cambridge last October. PHOTO: Chanelle Lawson.“Hot And Treacherous looks tough to beat but if he crosses the one, then Turn It Up crosses him, we’ll be four back.

“It all comes down to what Shane does. If he thinks he can’t cross, he might drive Turn It Up quietly, then we’re only three back and I’d be rapt.”

Dux says he’s “over the moon” with how Tommy is racing.

“He went terrific again last week. They were going that slow he had to roll up alongside them. And he got tired only in the last 50 metres.”

Dux says it’s very frustrating taking the horse to the races knowing how well he’s going but continually being taken out by impossible draws.

“He’s actually done a good job. He’s won something like A$48,000 since we could have sold him so it was probably the right decision to keep him.”

Tommy’s earnings are now well over A$200,000, with NZ$97,515 from eight wins in New Zealand and A$112,119 from a further eight wins in Queensland.

“And he’s got more to come.”

Hot And Treacherous, the winner of 11 races and NZ$249,150, will be having his first start for trainer Jack Butler and owner Clinton Livingstone, and first since New Year’s Eve when 12 lengths fourth behind Alta Wiseguy, Copy That and Kango in the Franklin Cup at Alexandra Park.

His last win was over a mile at Auckland last November in 1:55.4.

Tommy Lincoln races at 9.49pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.